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The Hans Niemann Effect

#21

LOL he is literally 6 out of 10. the bottom half of the tournament. geez, talk about emotions clouding one's judgement. 3 draws, he hasn't gained rating points. that makes him literally "on the cusp of 2700". will he get better, i'm sure he will break 2700 again, will he maintain that rating--he hasn't so far. let's revisit facts before casting accusations of motivated reasoning.

LOL he is literally 6 out of 10. the bottom half of the tournament. geez, talk about emotions clouding one's judgement. 3 draws, he hasn't gained rating points. that makes him literally "on the cusp of 2700". will he get better, i'm sure he will break 2700 again, will he maintain that rating--he hasn't so far. let's revisit facts before casting accusations of motivated reasoning.
#22

@ClayAndSilence you said
"Totally normal results for a 2699 player". uh yeah, may have lost a point or two, totally normal results for a player on the cusp of 2700. hello, exactly what I said. he was being touted as one of the coming elite. don't see it yet, a strong player, will probably break 2700, question is will he maintain that rating? he hasn't so far, let's try to step back and evaluate evidence.
he certainly hasn't performed recently up to the hype that has been generated. 3 draws, not bad, not impressive. totally normal for a near 2700 player. it is going to take a LOT more than that to break into the top 10. he didn't perform above that level in the US championship either, which is why he is still below 2700. he is nowhere near Alireza or Pragg, how will he do against Vidit?

@ClayAndSilence you said "Totally normal results for a 2699 player". uh yeah, may have lost a point or two, totally normal results for a player on the cusp of 2700. hello, exactly what I said. he was being touted as one of the coming elite. don't see it yet, a strong player, will probably break 2700, question is will he maintain that rating? he hasn't so far, let's try to step back and evaluate evidence. he certainly hasn't performed recently up to the hype that has been generated. 3 draws, not bad, not impressive. totally normal for a near 2700 player. it is going to take a LOT more than that to break into the top 10. he didn't perform above that level in the US championship either, which is why he is still below 2700. he is nowhere near Alireza or Pragg, how will he do against Vidit?
#23

Hans can play high level chess, obviously.
Though, when someone argue there is no proof he cheated, there are proofs.
They banned the whole Armenians team and gave the victory to the Americans team based on the same evidences, and everyone cheered.
The lawsuit just add a Dumb and Dumber layer to it, as if the scale of the lawsuit correlates with the degree of sincerity Hans has.
You just can't cheat, admit you cheated, and sue those you cheated because they call you a cheater. Is there a men karens category?

Also, repeating he never cheated OTB, but just online, does not re-qualify him in any way, because the natural aversion people have for cheaters makes it impossible.
There isn't 3 types of people -online cheaters, OTB cheaters and non cheaters.
Pete Rose was never re-instated, and the fact he alleged that he never bet on its own team did not changed anything. There is no room for cheaters anywhere.

Hans can play high level chess, obviously. Though, when someone argue there is no proof he cheated, there are proofs. They banned the whole Armenians team and gave the victory to the Americans team based on the same evidences, and everyone cheered. The lawsuit just add a Dumb and Dumber layer to it, as if the scale of the lawsuit correlates with the degree of sincerity Hans has. You just can't cheat, admit you cheated, and sue those you cheated because they call you a cheater. Is there a men karens category? Also, repeating he never cheated OTB, but just online, does not re-qualify him in any way, because the natural aversion people have for cheaters makes it impossible. There isn't 3 types of people -online cheaters, OTB cheaters and non cheaters. Pete Rose was never re-instated, and the fact he alleged that he never bet on its own team did not changed anything. There is no room for cheaters anywhere.
#25

@pretzelattack1 said in #22:

he is nowhere near Alireza or Pragg,

I don't know of anyone who is suggesting anything of the sort. This is what I mean. All logic has gone out of the conversation.

He's a c.2700 player who is getting c.2700 results. No more, no less.

What I'm arguing is that people are making insane claims that because he draws a few games that this is evidence he's not a c.2700 player, and that this supports the thesis he is, or was, cheating otb. Literally ridiculous. His results are entirely what you'd expect for the player he is.

I don't see any hype around him. This too is just fluff that people who seem t dislike him want to be true.

@pretzelattack1 said in #22: > he is nowhere near Alireza or Pragg, I don't know of anyone who is suggesting anything of the sort. This is what I mean. All logic has gone out of the conversation. He's a c.2700 player who is getting c.2700 results. No more, no less. What I'm arguing is that people are making insane claims that because he draws a few games that this is evidence he's not a c.2700 player, and that this supports the thesis he is, or was, cheating otb. Literally ridiculous. His results are entirely what you'd expect for the player he is. I don't see any hype around him. This too is just fluff that people who seem t dislike him want to be true.
#27

He's not a 2700 player till he gets and keeps a 2700 rating. He's a high 2600 player. look at his rating. he's not a low 2600 player, he's not a 2500 player, he's a high 2600 player. there is this persistent narrative that Hans is some kind of elite talent. He hasn't shown that. I don't know if he was cheating otb or not. the evidence at this point doesn't support that, but there have been decades of experience in other competitive activities at the highest level where people get away with cheating the system for years. So I don't rule it out. People were suspicious of his unprecedented rise during the last couple of years. if he doesn't keep rising, that suspicion will continue, but it isn't proof. he's got the motive, but does he have the means and the opportunity? There is no evidence that he does.

He's not a 2700 player till he gets and keeps a 2700 rating. He's a high 2600 player. look at his rating. he's not a low 2600 player, he's not a 2500 player, he's a high 2600 player. there is this persistent narrative that Hans is some kind of elite talent. He hasn't shown that. I don't know if he was cheating otb or not. the evidence at this point doesn't support that, but there have been decades of experience in other competitive activities at the highest level where people get away with cheating the system for years. So I don't rule it out. People were suspicious of his unprecedented rise during the last couple of years. if he doesn't keep rising, that suspicion will continue, but it isn't proof. he's got the motive, but does he have the means and the opportunity? There is no evidence that he does.
#28

How did he cheat?

AFAIK he admitted to violating the fair play policy (not intentionally cheating) by playing some moves suggested by fans in chat while he was streaming on Twitch. I assume all streamers do it; it isn't humanly possible to interact with stream chat and ignore all suggestions; and accuracy analysis won't catch those who only do it occasionally. IMHO the solution is to create separate streaming-allowed and non-streaming match pools and ratings, institute a 3 strikes policy for violations, and put "streamer" icons+links in profiles for easy spot-checking.

Furthermore, according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlsen%E2%80%93Niemann_controversy#Investigations, FIDE's analysis found no statistical evidence of Niemann cheating since 2020, while Chesscom's analysis found that he and and 24 other unnamed GMs may have cheated 100+ times. (Take the latter with a grain of salt, as there's a potential conflict of interest: Chesscom completed an $80 million buyout of Carlsen's company between August and October.)

I for one am thankful for this controversy; it's how I heard about Lichess :)

How did he cheat? AFAIK he admitted to violating the fair play policy (not intentionally cheating) by playing some moves suggested by fans in chat while he was streaming on Twitch. I assume all streamers do it; it isn't humanly possible to interact with stream chat and ignore all suggestions; and accuracy analysis won't catch those who only do it occasionally. IMHO the solution is to create separate streaming-allowed and non-streaming match pools and ratings, institute a 3 strikes policy for violations, and put "streamer" icons+links in profiles for easy spot-checking. Furthermore, according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlsen%E2%80%93Niemann_controversy#Investigations, FIDE's analysis found no statistical evidence of Niemann cheating since 2020, while Chesscom's analysis found that he and and 24 other unnamed GMs may have cheated 100+ times. (Take the latter with a grain of salt, as there's a potential conflict of interest: Chesscom completed an $80 million buyout of Carlsen's company between August and October.) I for one am thankful for this controversy; it's how I heard about Lichess :)
#30

where are Fabi's proofs?
these accusations need to stop!

there is not a single evidence proving out of any doubts that Fabi's claim is true
this is disgusting, chess is broken

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlqLLyaAb0w

where are Fabi's proofs? these accusations need to stop! there is not a single evidence proving out of any doubts that Fabi's claim is true this is disgusting, chess is broken https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlqLLyaAb0w

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