Chess Question of the Day • page 1/3 • General Chess Discussion • lichess.org

Hello everyone,
The question of the day goes like this:
'What is the probability of White getting checkmated in 2 moves?'
Seems quite easy but isn't!
Try!
And let me know the answer.
Best of luck!

Hello everyone, The question of the day goes like this: 'What is the probability of White getting checkmated in 2 moves?' Seems quite easy but isn't! Try! And let me know the answer. Best of luck!

aravb2022

#2

@Akbar2thegreat said in #1:

Hello everyone,
The question of the day goes like this:
'What is the probability of White getting checkmated in 2 moves?'
Seems quite easy but isn't!
Try!
And let me know the answer.
Best of luck!
Hello,
I just finded
https://lichess.org/study/YAChqcLo/nbGXyQTy
See Here And checkmate in 2 moves for black

@Akbar2thegreat said in #1: > Hello everyone, > The question of the day goes like this: > 'What is the probability of White getting checkmated in 2 moves?' > Seems quite easy but isn't! > Try! > And let me know the answer. > Best of luck! Hello, I just finded https://lichess.org/study/YAChqcLo/nbGXyQTy See Here And checkmate in 2 moves for black

Akbar2thegreat

#3

@aravb2022
I asked about 'probability' of occurrence of checkmating White in 2 moves and not how to play it.

@aravb2022 I asked about 'probability' of occurrence of checkmating White in 2 moves and not how to play it.

0.37707142857

White has 10 legal moves for the opening (8P + 2N). Find the probability of White making a pawn move and that being White's f-pawn. Next, multiply that value by 2 to find the probability of Black moving their e-pawn the same way. Then find White's probability of making a pawn move from 11 legal moves (8P + 2N + K) and that being White's g-pawn jumping twice. Finally find the probability of Black moving their Queen from their set of 13 moves (8P + 2N + B + Q + K), and landing her on h4 -- one of the 4 possible squares. Finally add all those together to get your answer. Have fun with the math part

MateInMinusThree

#6

maybe misleading in the way you have described it here - each move should be weighted equally, not the piece then the move (eg. if we have king and queen on board only, then it is far more likely that the queen moves as it has more squares available)
thr calculation is probably a bit tedious tho

maybe misleading in the way you have described it here - each move should be weighted equally, not the piece then the move (eg. if we have king and queen on board only, then it is far more likely that the queen moves as it has more squares available) thr calculation is probably a bit tedious tho

There are 197.281 legal move sequences of 4 moves, according to Perft.
8 of them result in a mate, white can play f3+g4, f4+g4, g4+f3 or g4+f4, black e6+Qh4 or e5+Qh4.
Playing random, but legal moves gives a probability of 8 / 197.281 for a checkmate.
Source: https://www.chessprogramming.org/Perft_Results

There are 197.281 legal move sequences of 4 moves, according to Perft. 8 of them result in a mate, white can play f3+g4, f4+g4, g4+f3 or g4+f4, black e6+Qh4 or e5+Qh4. Playing random, but legal moves gives a probability of 8 / 197.281 for a checkmate. Source: https://www.chessprogramming.org/Perft_Results

Akarsh_2010

edited

#9

according to lichess player database (which includes sandbaggers, trolls, and casual games, bullet to classical) about 22/4416.8 K

#10