A player needs natural talent, dedication, training, and opportunities for competition. Reaching 2200 by age 18 is quite rare and exceptional.
Three typical progressions for young chess players:
- Exceptional Progress (very rare, <0.1% of players): Reaching 2200 by age 18
- Strong Progress (uncommon, perhaps 1-5% of players): Reaching 2000 by age 18
- Average Progress (more common): Reaching 1800 by age 18
Generalized adjusted scales:
Scenario 1: Exceptional Progress (2200 by age 18)
Age | Rating | Percentage of Final Rating
--- | ------ | ---------------------------
3 | 100 | 4.55%
4 | 200 | 9.09%
5 | 400 | 18.18%
6 | 600 | 27.27%
7 | 800 | 36.36%
8 | 1000 | 45.45%
9 | 1200 | 54.55%
10 | 1400 | 63.64%
11 | 1600 | 72.73%
12 | 1750 | 79.55%
13 | 1850 | 84.09%
14 | 1950 | 88.64%
15 | 2050 | 93.18%
16 | 2100 | 95.45%
17 | 2150 | 97.73%
18 | 2200 | 100.00%
Scenario 2: Strong Progress (2000 by age 18)
Age | Rating | Percentage of Final Rating
--- | ------ | ---------------------------
3 | 100 | 5.00%
4 | 180 | 9.00%
5 | 300 | 15.00%
6 | 450 | 22.50%
7 | 600 | 30.00%
8 | 800 | 40.00%
9 | 1000 | 50.00%
10 | 1200 | 60.00%
11 | 1350 | 67.50%
12 | 1500 | 75.00%
13 | 1650 | 82.50%
14 | 1750 | 87.50%
15 | 1850 | 92.50%
16 | 1900 | 95.00%
17 | 1950 | 97.50%
18 | 2000 | 100.00%
Scenario 3: Average Progress (1800 by age 18)
Age | Rating | Percentage of Final Rating
--- | ------ | ---------------------------
3 | 100 | 5.56%
4 | 150 | 8.33%
5 | 250 | 13.89%
6 | 400 | 22.22%
7 | 550 | 30.56%
8 | 700 | 38.89%
9 | 850 | 47.22%
10 | 1000 | 55.56%
11 | 1150 | 63.89%
12 | 1300 | 72.22%
13 | 1400 | 77.78%
14 | 1500 | 83.33%
15 | 1600 | 88.89%
16 | 1650 | 91.67%
17 | 1750 | 97.22%
18 | 1800 | 100.00%
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/if-a-rating-of-2200-is-100-tha-oTxZB2PESsKSjJaAjpuPCw#5
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/using-this-scale-and-reality-w-PeYDNwlYS4iS_0T.GbSU1w
My rule of thumb has always been 100 rating points per year. @runninglion
A player needs natural talent, dedication, training, and opportunities for competition. Reaching 2200 by age 18 is quite rare and exceptional.
Three typical progressions for young chess players:
1. Exceptional Progress (very rare, <0.1% of players): Reaching 2200 by age 18
2. Strong Progress (uncommon, perhaps 1-5% of players): Reaching 2000 by age 18
3. Average Progress (more common): Reaching 1800 by age 18
Generalized adjusted scales:
Scenario 1: Exceptional Progress (2200 by age 18)
Age | Rating | Percentage of Final Rating
--- | ------ | ---------------------------
3 | 100 | 4.55%
4 | 200 | 9.09%
5 | 400 | 18.18%
6 | 600 | 27.27%
7 | 800 | 36.36%
8 | 1000 | 45.45%
9 | 1200 | 54.55%
10 | 1400 | 63.64%
11 | 1600 | 72.73%
12 | 1750 | 79.55%
13 | 1850 | 84.09%
14 | 1950 | 88.64%
15 | 2050 | 93.18%
16 | 2100 | 95.45%
17 | 2150 | 97.73%
18 | 2200 | 100.00%
Scenario 2: Strong Progress (2000 by age 18)
Age | Rating | Percentage of Final Rating
--- | ------ | ---------------------------
3 | 100 | 5.00%
4 | 180 | 9.00%
5 | 300 | 15.00%
6 | 450 | 22.50%
7 | 600 | 30.00%
8 | 800 | 40.00%
9 | 1000 | 50.00%
10 | 1200 | 60.00%
11 | 1350 | 67.50%
12 | 1500 | 75.00%
13 | 1650 | 82.50%
14 | 1750 | 87.50%
15 | 1850 | 92.50%
16 | 1900 | 95.00%
17 | 1950 | 97.50%
18 | 2000 | 100.00%
Scenario 3: Average Progress (1800 by age 18)
Age | Rating | Percentage of Final Rating
--- | ------ | ---------------------------
3 | 100 | 5.56%
4 | 150 | 8.33%
5 | 250 | 13.89%
6 | 400 | 22.22%
7 | 550 | 30.56%
8 | 700 | 38.89%
9 | 850 | 47.22%
10 | 1000 | 55.56%
11 | 1150 | 63.89%
12 | 1300 | 72.22%
13 | 1400 | 77.78%
14 | 1500 | 83.33%
15 | 1600 | 88.89%
16 | 1650 | 91.67%
17 | 1750 | 97.22%
18 | 1800 | 100.00%
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/if-a-rating-of-2200-is-100-tha-oTxZB2PESsKSjJaAjpuPCw#5
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/using-this-scale-and-reality-w-PeYDNwlYS4iS_0T.GbSU1w
My rule of thumb has always been 100 rating points per year. @runninglion