Thank you everyone for your very kind replies. What a great community!
Thank you 'A Lichess Moderator' for your official reply, it was very helpful.
Therefore I now know that I am playing in the normal pool along with millions of other honest players. That's great to know. It means that the experience that I am having playing 15+10 Rapid games on Lichess is the normal experience and not something extraordinary due to being placed in a different pool.
What I experienced was that the first 14 games I played (+8=2-4) felt very different to the next 8 (+0=1-7). I'll refer to these two groups of games here as Group A (the first 14 games) and Group B (the next 8 games) respectively. Thank you @Arkash_2010 for kindly explaining that the 7-game losing streak I experienced in Group B is completely normal and indeed it was largely due to me having underperformed. That is, it's normal to have losing streaks.
However, it is interesting to look into this a little deeper. To do so I used an online tool which estimates a player's rating from a single game: the "Game Review" feature of Chess_com. It produces an estimate of playing strength which here I will call the GRR ("Game Review Rating") for each player in a particular game. Please be aware that Chess_com ratings and Lichess ratings are completely different systems and cannot be directly compared; for example, a player whose Chess_com Rapid rating is 1200 might have a Lichess Rapid rating of 1500. However, what is meaningful is to make a relative comparison of one's average performance over a group of games. Thus, I used my average GRR to confirm what Arkash_2010 pointed out: that indeed I underperformed in Group B compared to my performance in Group A:
My average GRR in Group A: 1807
My average GRR in Group B: 1581
Difference: -226 points
At the end of Group A my Lichess Rapid rating was 1690.
At the end of Group B it was 1561.
Difference: -129 points.
So my Lichess rating dropped as would be expected since I underperformed.
Indeed I blundered badly in several Group B games! The lower GRR reflects my blundering.
Thank you for your kind question, @nadjarostowa. The bad experience was that some of my Group B opponents seemed at times to perform at a surprisingly strong level which seemed much stronger than their rating. Two of my opponents rated in the 1600s played almost perfect games (average centipawn losses of 18 and 11 respectively, both with a GRR of 2200); others played surprisingly strongly only for part of the game. This felt completely different to Group A.
To some extent this is to be expected since Group B were stronger players:
Average Lichess Rapid rating of my opponents in Group A: 1591
Average Lichess Rapid rating of my opponents in Group B: 1694
Difference: +103
However, their average quality of play was disproportionately strong:
Average GRR of my opponents in Group A: 1621
Average GRR of my opponents in Group B: 1887
Difference: +266
In summary:
- I certainly underperformed in Group B and that alone is why I lost all 7 games; and
- On average, my opponents perhaps overperformed in Group B.
I now understand that this is all completely normal.
Thanks for all the replies.
Thank you everyone for your very kind replies. What a great community!
Thank you 'A Lichess Moderator' for your official reply, it was very helpful.
Therefore I now know that I am playing in the normal pool along with millions of other honest players. That's great to know. It means that the experience that I am having playing 15+10 Rapid games on Lichess is the normal experience and not something extraordinary due to being placed in a different pool.
What I experienced was that the first 14 games I played (+8=2-4) felt very different to the next 8 (+0=1-7). I'll refer to these two groups of games here as Group A (the first 14 games) and Group B (the next 8 games) respectively. Thank you @Arkash_2010 for kindly explaining that the 7-game losing streak I experienced in Group B is completely normal and indeed it was largely due to me having underperformed. That is, it's normal to have losing streaks.
However, it is interesting to look into this a little deeper. To do so I used an online tool which estimates a player's rating from a single game: the "Game Review" feature of Chess_com. It produces an estimate of playing strength which here I will call the GRR ("Game Review Rating") for each player in a particular game. Please be aware that Chess_com ratings and Lichess ratings are completely different systems and cannot be directly compared; for example, a player whose Chess_com Rapid rating is 1200 might have a Lichess Rapid rating of 1500. However, what is meaningful is to make a relative comparison of one's average performance over a group of games. Thus, I used my average GRR to confirm what Arkash_2010 pointed out: that indeed I underperformed in Group B compared to my performance in Group A:
My average GRR in Group A: 1807
My average GRR in Group B: 1581
Difference: -226 points
At the end of Group A my Lichess Rapid rating was 1690.
At the end of Group B it was 1561.
Difference: -129 points.
So my Lichess rating dropped as would be expected since I underperformed.
Indeed I blundered badly in several Group B games! The lower GRR reflects my blundering.
Thank you for your kind question, @nadjarostowa. The bad experience was that some of my Group B opponents seemed at times to perform at a surprisingly strong level which seemed much stronger than their rating. Two of my opponents rated in the 1600s played almost perfect games (average centipawn losses of 18 and 11 respectively, both with a GRR of 2200); others played surprisingly strongly only for part of the game. This felt completely different to Group A.
To some extent this is to be expected since Group B were stronger players:
Average Lichess Rapid rating of my opponents in Group A: 1591
Average Lichess Rapid rating of my opponents in Group B: 1694
Difference: +103
However, their average quality of play was disproportionately strong:
Average GRR of my opponents in Group A: 1621
Average GRR of my opponents in Group B: 1887
Difference: +266
In summary:
- I certainly underperformed in Group B and that alone is why I lost all 7 games; and
- On average, my opponents perhaps overperformed in Group B.
I now understand that this is all completely normal.
Thanks for all the replies.