How many percentage of 100 games is cheat

I don't think i have received the "Cheater Notification" more than 15 times
in about 7000 rated games

@Schach02 said in #10:

For me : 5 times (max) in 3047 rated blitz, rapid and classical games = 0,164% (max)

@jesgluckner said in #11:

I don't think i have received the "Cheater Notification" more than 15 times
in about 7000 rated games

I agree that there is very few that cheat in a way that is possible to detect by the detectors.
My experience, or feeling, is that about 10 players out of those 100, is using some form of cheat method that does not get detected by the detectors.

For instance where the player is playing with human inaccuracies/blunders in the first 5 -10 opening moves. Then plays with regular time intervals the next 5 -10 moves where he play very strong (indicating tha he use engine help for those moves). But where he in between does a few obvious/easy moves instantly.

Cheers

@enoyx said in #12:

I agree that there is very few that cheat in a way that is possible to detect by the detectors.
My experience, or feeling, is that about 10 players out of those 100, is using some form of cheat method that does not get detected by the detectors.

For instance where the player is playing with human inaccuracies/blunders in the first 5 -10 opening moves. Then plays with regular time intervals the next 5 -10 moves where he play very strong (indicating tha he use engine help for those moves). But where he in between does a few obvious/easy moves instantly.

Cheers

you estimate 10% compared with @Schach02 's 0.21% estimation. Fifty times higher. I play most of my games in the under 2k rapid which I think is one of the worst, and I feel like it's 5%.
There are some very strong and clever statistical cheat detection mechanisms they have. Sometimes when we think someone has cheated our own psychological situation is coming into it. For example frustration, ego, sour grapes etc. Sometimes it might be sandbaggers and not engine users

At rating 1700-2200 blitz? Probably close to zero for engine users. As it was mentioned earlier, probably you're more likely to run into sandbaggers at this level (esp. right near 1700 and right near 2000 for the rating cutoffs for the Uxxxx tourneys), which is still cheating, but not using assistance, just underplaying your actual rating.

In classical time controls in this rating range I've encountered a few, likewise at rapid, but I would be shocked if it were 1%.

[edit]Just as a note that from a statistical point of view, I'm pretty sure that if the cheater rate were in the range of 10%, let alone 50%, the ratings of non-cheaters would be extremely unstable. Your rating would always trend downward because there is always a group of players that are much, much better than you are. E.g. the OP has 47% wins and 46% losses. If 10% of their games are automatic losses due to cheats, you would expect that you would systematically have higher losses than wins. The fact that the win/loss ratio converges to nearly equal for most players suggests that there is a very small number of cheaters.

That would be pure speculation and the percentage surely depends on the time control.
I recently played against some obvious cheaters. In superblitz there was a lag cheater and in classical an engine cheater.

I don't think there are many cheaters active in bullet but plenty of keyboard players.

My troll opening detects cheaters easily :).
In this position: r1b1kbnr/pp1npppp/2pp4/7q/2PPP3/2N2N1P/PP3PP1/R1BQKB1R w KQkq - 1 7
7.e5 is the best move but humans will play 7.Be2 (or maybe 7.g4 or some other unusual move). If someone plays 7.e5 in a bullet game he is a Cheater without any doubts.

@enoyx It depends massively on the settings; rated, time controls, tournament etc.

It runs from 0.01% in casual hyper up to 8% max in a slow, rated tournament from my experience. Why do I say this? Well I once had 18 refunds out of 208 matches in one tournament. But overall cheating seems to run about 2-3% for Blitz/ Rapid even at it's peak. The can also be roughly seen just be the number of accounts that are blocked. If you play a lot of games at certain time controls you know the figure is around this mark.

Most people wrongly think that the highest number of cheaters is in the long games but this isn't true. By their nature they are impatient people and therefore they play around the 5-10 + 5 mark because they need time to cheat but don't want to wait around because they don't use their brains so they are bored. (That is the classic use a 2nd device kind of cheater).

Almost no one cheats in bullet and it's extremely rare. However there is another kind of cheater who uses an actual programme bot to play against you which can play bullet. I have only come across 2 players / 50,000 bullet games. It's really obvious when they use it and Lichess seems to have to some great tracking software because they got banned almost straight away.

• Not be confused with the legal, but horrible KB players. That feels like they are cheating but they aren't, it's just an extremely quick platform to use.

Apparently there are also some clever 'lag' cheaters but I don't know if this is true in online chess and I never seem to have a problem with that so I don't know. I know it's possible in some computer games to corrupt other players connection and slow the game down but I don't know about online chess.

The guy above me quotes 15 refunds out of 7000, but that doesn't include the ones not caught, the actual number of refunds and the number of actual cheaters obviously doesn't match.

Here's what I think it is for each time control:
Ultrabullet: 0.01% or 60%, depending on whether you think kb is cheating
Bullet: 0.25% (not many people are aware of this but there is a chrome extension that shows you the computer move to play, even in bullet games) or 10%, depending on whether you think kb is cheating
Blitz: 0.5% (it's possible but rare again)
Rapid: 1% (I rarely see cheaters in rapid but it's definitely more common than blitz)
Classical: 4% (idk but this is just an estimate based on what i've seen)
Correspondence: 3% (I actually see surprisingly little cheating in correspondence)

About 1%

@enoyx said in #1:

If you play 100 blitz/rapid games with different players with rating between 1700 - 2200, how many of them is using some form of cheat ?

0.1 % to 1% , (1 in 100 games to 1 in 1000 games )!