AI determines the better chess player

In this pairing situation, White, who has a lower rating, must avoid losing on time and only needs a draw to improve their rating. Conversely, Black, with a higher rating, can only gain rating points by winning either on time or by checkmate.

Time control: 15 minutes (Blitz)
White Pieces (1684)
4 Inaccuracies
1 Mistake
0 Blunders
22 Average centipawn loss
91% Accuracy

Black Pieces (1715)
4 Inaccuracies
0 Mistakes
0 Blunders
22 Average centipawn loss
92% Accuracy

[Event "Hourly Blitz Arena"]
[Result "0-1"]
[WhiteElo "1684"]
[BlackElo "1715"]
[WhiteRatingDiff "-5"]
[BlackRatingDiff "+5"]
[Variant "Standard"]
[TimeControl "300+0"]
[ECO "C02"]
[Opening "French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack"]
[Termination "Time forfeit"]

1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. c3 e6 4. d4 d5 5. e5 { C02 French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack } cxd4 6. cxd4 Bb4+ 7. Bd2 Qb6 8. Bxb4 Qxb4+ 9. Qd2?! { (0.60 -0.02) Inaccuracy. Nc3 was best. } (9. Nc3) 9... Nge7?! { (-0.02 0.54) Inaccuracy. Qxd2+ was best. } (9... Qxd2+ 10. Kxd2 Bd7 11. Nc3 f6 12. Re1 fxe5 13. dxe5 Nge7 14. h4 O-O 15. h5) 10. a3?! { (0.54 -0.34) Inaccuracy. Nc3 was best. } (10. Nc3) 10... Qxd2+ 11. Nbxd2 Nf5 12. Nb3 b6 13. Bb5 Bd7 14. Bd3 Nfe7 15. O-O O-O-O?! { (-0.37 0.41) Inaccuracy. a5 was best. } (15... a5 16. Rfb1 Bc8 17. Nc1 Ba6 18. Bxa6 Rxa6 19. b4 axb4 20. axb4 Rxa1 21. Rxa1) 16. Rfc1 Kb7 17. Nbd2 h6 18. b4 Rc8 19. Nb3 g6 20. b5 Nb8?! { (0.40 1.08) Inaccuracy. Na5 was best. } (20... Na5 21. Nfd2 Nxb3 22. Nxb3 g5 23. f3 Rhf8 24. a4 f5 25. Kf2 f4 26. a5) 21. a4 Rxc1+ 22. Rxc1 Rc8 23. Rxc8 Bxc8 24. Ne1 Kc7 25. Nc2 a6 26. Nb4 a5 27. Nc2 Nf5 28. g4 Nh4 29. Nd2 g5 30. h3?! { (1.37 0.63) Inaccuracy. f4 was best. } (30. f4 Nd7 31. f5 Nf8 32. Ne3 Kd7 33. Kf2 Ke7 34. Bc2 f6 35. fxe6 Bxe6) 30... Bd7?! { (0.63 1.40) Inaccuracy. Nd7 was best. } (30... Nd7) 31. Kh2?! { (1.40 0.75) Inaccuracy. f4 was best. } (31. f4) 31... Be8 32. Kg3 Nd7 33. Nf3? { (1.30 -0.05) Mistake. f4 was best. } (33. f4) 33... Nxf3 34. Kxf3 f6 35. exf6 Nxf6 { Black wins on time. } 0-1

Based solely on this single game, definitively declaring one player "better" overall is challenging. Strategically and positionally, White demonstrated superior skill for most of the encounter. Technically, Black played more consistently, avoiding mistakes, though often in a worse position. However, practically, White lost due to poor time management, a critical weakness in blitz. It's unfortunate this game lacked increment time, as White, who appeared to be the stronger player based on the board, likely would have secured at least a draw and gained rating points had the clock not run out. If not for the time factor, the neutral position and equal play suggest a likely draw. White's failure to manage time cost them the opportunity to capitalize on their strategic advantage.

Therefore, while White displayed greater chess understanding in this specific game, Black exhibited superior practical blitz skills by securing the win, even if through a time forfeit. This outcome highlights the crucial role of time management in blitz, where practical execution often outweighs purely strategic or tactical superiority. The absence of increment time significantly impacted the result, potentially denying the player who demonstrated greater chess skill a deserved rating gain.

It feels like the closed game could have been avoided, but I cannot pinpoint the move that could have swung the game wide open. It's like both of us just wanted the game to remain closed.

Given that move 9 was the first inaccuracy detected, I'll use Nibbler in self-play to analyze if there was any opening opportunities using Stockfish 17.1 [Variant "From Position"]
[FEN "r1b1k1nr/pp3ppp/2n1p3/3pP3/1q1P4/5N2/PP3PPP/RN1QKB1R w KQkq - 0 9"]

When the game is done, I'll display it.

The self play from ply 17: Triple Repetition
r1b1k1nr/pp3ppp/2n1p3/3pP3/1q1P4/5N2/PP3PPP/RN1QKB1R w KQkq - 0 9

Well this was from ply 18 of the original game and the rest is self play, still three fold repetition.
Both sides have 1 Average centipawn loss & 100% Accuracy.
r1b1k1nr/pp3ppp/2n1p3/3pP3/1q1P4/5N2/PP1Q1PPP/RN2KB1R b KQkq - 1 9

Finally found the checkmate... It was my inaccurate move 20 that caused the loss of this game.