- Blind mode tutorial
lichess.org
Donate

How Well do Different Opening Moves Score Across Rating Ranges?

#2

I learned my kids the Grunfeld and the Caro Kann with black. Nice to see that they are both regarded as statistically the best till +2000 level.

With white I let them play 1.e4 but 1.Nf3 seems to be a more future-safe approach. Do you have more information about this 1.Nf3? Which setup is the most succesfull (with g3, with b3,...) so would be good to know the answer on 1.Nf3 Nf6

Interesting stuff !

I learned my kids the Grunfeld and the Caro Kann with black. Nice to see that they are both regarded as statistically the best till +2000 level. With white I let them play 1.e4 but 1.Nf3 seems to be a more future-safe approach. Do you have more information about this 1.Nf3? Which setup is the most succesfull (with g3, with b3,...) so would be good to know the answer on 1.Nf3 Nf6 Interesting stuff !
#3

@mvhk said in #2:

With white I let them play 1.e4 but 1.Nf3 seems to be a more future-safe approach. Do you have more information about this 1.Nf3? Which setup is the most succesfull (with g3, with b3,...) so would be good to know the answer on 1.Nf3 Nf6

I haven't looked at specific variations in 1.Nf3 but after looking quickly at the opening explorer I think that the setups with g3 and c4 score well. I'd recommend looking through the opening explorer at the target level where you can see the score and black's most common responses at that level

@mvhk said in #2: > With white I let them play 1.e4 but 1.Nf3 seems to be a more future-safe approach. Do you have more information about this 1.Nf3? Which setup is the most succesfull (with g3, with b3,...) so would be good to know the answer on 1.Nf3 Nf6 I haven't looked at specific variations in 1.Nf3 but after looking quickly at the opening explorer I think that the setups with g3 and c4 score well. I'd recommend looking through the opening explorer at the target level where you can see the score and black's most common responses at that level
#4

Hey JK, super interesting analysis!! Great job on this. If you have a moment I would be incredibly interested to find out how the English Defense (1.d4 e6 2.c4 b6 3.Nc3 Bb4) fares in your analysis. I was recently made aware by a few GMs that it is performing very well at the highest levels and it would be super interesting to see it subjected to this style of analysis. I'll be waiting on the edge of my seat!

Hey JK, super interesting analysis!! Great job on this. If you have a moment I would be incredibly interested to find out how the English Defense (1.d4 e6 2.c4 b6 3.Nc3 Bb4) fares in your analysis. I was recently made aware by a few GMs that it is performing very well at the highest levels and it would be super interesting to see it subjected to this style of analysis. I'll be waiting on the edge of my seat!
#5

What is meant by rating range in this post? Is that the rating of the player making the move?

There was a discussion sometime ago about Lichess win percentages for certain moves in certain rating ranges. I think Lichess averages the rating of White and Black player for those stats, which could lead one to make inaccurate conclusions.

For instance if a certain opening move is played by highly rated White players against much lower rated Black players, it's going to have a high win percentage. But that can be explained by the rating differential between the White players' rating and Black players' rating and not necessarily by the (practical) quality of the move.

I'm guessing your analysis took this to account but I wanted to ask anyway. Thanks for the informative post.

What is meant by rating range in this post? Is that the rating of the player making the move? There was a discussion sometime ago about Lichess win percentages for certain moves in certain rating ranges. I think Lichess averages the rating of White and Black player for those stats, which could lead one to make inaccurate conclusions. For instance if a certain opening move is played by highly rated White players against much lower rated Black players, it's going to have a high win percentage. But that can be explained by the rating differential between the White players' rating and Black players' rating and not necessarily by the (practical) quality of the move. I'm guessing your analysis took this to account but I wanted to ask anyway. Thanks for the informative post.
#6

@P4WNST0RMER said in #4:

Hey JK, super interesting analysis!! Great job on this. If you have a moment I would be incredibly interested to find out how the English Defense (1.d4 e6 2.c4 b6 3.Nc3 Bb4) fares in your analysis. I was recently made aware by a few GMs that it is performing very well at the highest levels and it would be super interesting to see it subjected to this style of analysis. I'll be waiting on the edge of my seat!

It actually scores very well at higher levels. Until 1400, White scores about 52-53% but then White's score drops linearly to around 47% at 2500 Lichess.

@P4WNST0RMER said in #4: > Hey JK, super interesting analysis!! Great job on this. If you have a moment I would be incredibly interested to find out how the English Defense (1.d4 e6 2.c4 b6 3.Nc3 Bb4) fares in your analysis. I was recently made aware by a few GMs that it is performing very well at the highest levels and it would be super interesting to see it subjected to this style of analysis. I'll be waiting on the edge of my seat! It actually scores very well at higher levels. Until 1400, White scores about 52-53% but then White's score drops linearly to around 47% at 2500 Lichess.
#7

@AnlamK said in #5:

What is meant by rating range in this post? Is that the rating of the player making the move?

I just used the rating ranges from the Lichess explorer so I'd guess that it's the average of the ratings of both players. But I don't think that it makes a big difference because there are fewer games where players are rated 200+ points apart and I'd also guess that there aren't too many players that specifically vary their opening moves based on their opponent's rating.

@AnlamK said in #5: > What is meant by rating range in this post? Is that the rating of the player making the move? I just used the rating ranges from the Lichess explorer so I'd guess that it's the average of the ratings of both players. But I don't think that it makes a big difference because there are fewer games where players are rated 200+ points apart and I'd also guess that there aren't too many players that specifically vary their opening moves based on their opponent's rating.
#8

This was very interesting, thank you!

This was very interesting, thank you!
#9

I like it
Helped me a lot in my games!!!
On chess.com

I like it Helped me a lot in my games!!! On chess.com