Of course Ian has a chance, close to 50% i'd say.
Dude Carlsen defeat Neponmiachtchi in Norway chess 2021.So Carlsen will win
@meeeep said in #9:
> The probability computed was 24% chance to win without dropping a single game, which is a bigger ask.
>
> The probability that Nepomniachtchi wins outright in the classical segment can be computed by expanding (0.1 + 0.7X + 0.2X^2)^14 and summing all the coefficients greater than 14. (This simulates 1 point for a draw and 2 points for a win, >= 15 points needed for an outright win).
Ah, someone who actually knows what they're doing. I had the inkling that I wasn't accounting for 2 wins + 1 loss, 3 wins + 2 losses, etc., but I didn't know how to express it. Thank you for spelling it out, very instructional.
> The probability computed was 24% chance to win without dropping a single game, which is a bigger ask.
>
> The probability that Nepomniachtchi wins outright in the classical segment can be computed by expanding (0.1 + 0.7X + 0.2X^2)^14 and summing all the coefficients greater than 14. (This simulates 1 point for a draw and 2 points for a win, >= 15 points needed for an outright win).
Ah, someone who actually knows what they're doing. I had the inkling that I wasn't accounting for 2 wins + 1 loss, 3 wins + 2 losses, etc., but I didn't know how to express it. Thank you for spelling it out, very instructional.
@chasseboy123, correcting the mistake is not stupid, complaining for correcting the mistake is stupid.
This topic has been archived and can no longer be replied to.