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Approximately 100 Civilisations in Our Galaxy

#2

Considering the amount of evidence (none) anyone could guess from 0 to whatever number and they'd be equally pulling it out of their asses, you can't generate any meaningful estimates from no evidence whatsoever, or any real understanding of what it actually takes for abiogenisis to a civilizational level or the breadth of forms that can take or what conditions it can take place. (And this is from someone who wholly believes in there being a decent amount of extraterrestrial civilizations.)

Considering the amount of evidence (none) anyone could guess from 0 to whatever number and they'd be equally pulling it out of their asses, you can't generate any meaningful estimates from no evidence whatsoever, or any real understanding of what it actually takes for abiogenisis to a civilizational level or the breadth of forms that can take or what conditions it can take place. (And this is from someone who wholly believes in there being a decent amount of extraterrestrial civilizations.)
#3

Salmon is a little angry.

Considering that this planet had life for the last 100 million years, and only now, in the last century, we are going to space. This is 1 in a million. Aliens must be curious about this, and watching us like we watch lions on National Geographic, like the main entertainment.

Expect no interferences, no aliens coming to the earth revealing themselves, cause it would ruin their pay-per-view channel :)

Salmon is a little angry. Considering that this planet had life for the last 100 million years, and only now, in the last century, we are going to space. This is 1 in a million. Aliens must be curious about this, and watching us like we watch lions on National Geographic, like the main entertainment. Expect no interferences, no aliens coming to the earth revealing themselves, cause it would ruin their pay-per-view channel :)
#4

@celinofj said in #3:

Salmon is a little angry.

Considering that this planet had life for the last 100 million years, and only now, in the last century, we are going to space. This is 1 in a million. Aliens must be curious about this, and watching us like we watch lions on National Geographic, like the main entertainment.

Expect no interferences, no aliens coming to the earth revealing themselves, cause it would ruin their pay-per-view channel :)

I'm not angry lol, there is just no hard data to go off of since there is 1 known planet with life. I've had my share of 'sightings' some very convincing but since I didn't establish communication there's no saying what it was, it could've been from Earth or elsewhere - which goes for any UFO type things. I especially like the one where they supposedly deactivated all the nukes in that base in the UK.

He can't just say 1/100, he doesn't even go into any of the variables he used - like what is he basing that off of? That isn't how science works. Lol there are way way way too many unknowns to make a remotely educated guess.

@celinofj said in #3: > Salmon is a little angry. > > Considering that this planet had life for the last 100 million years, and only now, in the last century, we are going to space. This is 1 in a million. Aliens must be curious about this, and watching us like we watch lions on National Geographic, like the main entertainment. > > Expect no interferences, no aliens coming to the earth revealing themselves, cause it would ruin their pay-per-view channel :) I'm not angry lol, there is just no hard data to go off of since there is 1 known planet with life. I've had my share of 'sightings' some very convincing but since I didn't establish communication there's no saying what it was, it could've been from Earth or elsewhere - which goes for any UFO type things. I especially like the one where they supposedly deactivated all the nukes in that base in the UK. He can't just say 1/100, he doesn't even go into any of the variables he used - like what is he basing that off of? That isn't how science works. Lol there are way way way too many unknowns to make a remotely educated guess.
#5

The last sentence of post #4 is hard to refute.

We can all speculate. But we aren't even yet wandering toward certainty.

Thank you, @salmon_rushdie , we don't always, or even often, agree.

But you seem to me an important and excellent contributor to Lichess's off-topic forum.

Happy New Year.

The last sentence of post #4 is hard to refute. We can all speculate. But we aren't even yet wandering toward certainty. Thank you, @salmon_rushdie , we don't always, or even often, agree. But you seem to me an important and excellent contributor to Lichess's off-topic forum. Happy New Year.
#6

We humans have tried since the late 19s using Voyager 1. No proof that they exist yet. So until then we might as well eat our pigs and do the rest of our life safely.

We humans have tried since the late 19s using Voyager 1. No proof that they exist yet. So until then we might as well eat our pigs and do the rest of our life safely.
#7

#3
"this planet had life for the last 100 million years"

  • Rather 1 billion years. All coal and gas we use are fossils of life about 200 million years ago.
#3 "this planet had life for the last 100 million years" * Rather 1 billion years. All coal and gas we use are fossils of life about 200 million years ago.
#8

I wouldn't call mankind civilized...

I doubt there is one in the universe.
That would require intelligence enough to not allow psychopaths as leaders.
That would require different kinds of brains than human.
Larger, or/and a different architecture.
Most likely with a higher energy demand.
That would be a evolutionary disadvantage.

Existences with human like behaviour may exist.
They are no threat however.
They will never be space-faring.
They will waste their resources on internal wars.
Just like humans...
Mankind will die out on this planet.

I never had any UFO-like experience.

I wouldn't call mankind civilized... I doubt there is one in the universe. That would require intelligence enough to not allow psychopaths as leaders. That would require different kinds of brains than human. Larger, or/and a different architecture. Most likely with a higher energy demand. That would be a evolutionary disadvantage. Existences with human like behaviour may exist. They are no threat however. They will never be space-faring. They will waste their resources on internal wars. Just like humans... Mankind will die out on this planet. I never had any UFO-like experience.
#9

I find it impressive life evolved over billions of years, multi cell life had hundreds of millions to evolve, anthropocene gave us 12000 years or so of civilization, and with only about 200 years of greed and industrialization, we managed to wreck it all.

I find it impressive life evolved over billions of years, multi cell life had hundreds of millions to evolve, anthropocene gave us 12000 years or so of civilization, and with only about 200 years of greed and industrialization, we managed to wreck it all.
#10

I would say that we need to distinguish between an intelligent species that hasn't yet formed a complex society and an intelligent species that has developed a civilization. What level of civilization do we expect from potential extraterrestrials and how much civilizations for a single specie ? Perhaps the majority of these potential civilizations are at the equivalent of our antiquity, without any space travel capabilities. And who says these civilizations have developed space travel ? And also, what would these civilizations look like if they were societies of species completely unlike ours ?

I would say that we need to distinguish between an intelligent species that hasn't yet formed a complex society and an intelligent species that has developed a civilization. What level of civilization do we expect from potential extraterrestrials and how much civilizations for a single specie ? Perhaps the majority of these potential civilizations are at the equivalent of our antiquity, without any space travel capabilities. And who says these civilizations have developed space travel ? And also, what would these civilizations look like if they were societies of species completely unlike ours ?