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From 0.7% to Champion: Pragg Wins the UzChess Cup

#3

Can you explain why Pragg has around 60% chancee, Nodirbek 25%, and Sindarov only 15% after round 9?

Can you explain why Pragg has around 60% chancee, Nodirbek 25%, and Sindarov only 15% after round 9?
#4

@lampiopasa

That's because after round 9 the tiebreaks happened and these were Blitz games. So I used Blitz ratings (instead of the Classical/Standard rating) for the simulation. These are:

  • 2734 Praggnanandhaa R
  • 2694 Abdusattorov, Nodirbek
  • 2626 Sindarov, Javokhir

So Pragg had quite an edge there.

@lampiopasa That's because after round 9 the tiebreaks happened and these were Blitz games. So I used Blitz ratings (instead of the Classical/Standard rating) for the simulation. These are: - 2734 Praggnanandhaa R - 2694 Abdusattorov, Nodirbek - 2626 Sindarov, Javokhir So Pragg had quite an edge there.
#5

Is it possible to use previous encounters as a factor when calculating the win probability etc?

Is it possible to use previous encounters as a factor when calculating the win probability etc?
#6

enjoyed this article very much!

enjoyed this article very much!
#7

@GiveEverythingToWin said in #5:

Is it possible to use previous encounters as a factor when calculating the win probability etc?

You mean direct encounters between two players? Interesting idea! How would you want this to work? Currently it's "just math" based on Elo strength.

@GiveEverythingToWin said in #5: > Is it possible to use previous encounters as a factor when calculating the win probability etc? You mean direct encounters between two players? Interesting idea! How would you want this to work? Currently it's "just math" based on Elo strength.
#8

Lets say someone has a score of 5-1 vs somebody, but has a lower rating. Then the ratings wouldn't be the entire truth of the probability of the outcome of the game. I'm no expert in this area but I was thinking like giving the player with the higher score (+3 could be the minimum) could ge like a 20 elo rating buff.

Lets say someone has a score of 5-1 vs somebody, but has a lower rating. Then the ratings wouldn't be the entire truth of the probability of the outcome of the game. I'm no expert in this area but I was thinking like giving the player with the higher score (+3 could be the minimum) could ge like a 20 elo rating buff.