For the rest day, here is the analysis of an important game :
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* Mamedyarov-Ding Liren from round 12 *
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chapter 11 of the following study : lichess.org/study/qJOLmzLp
Svidler has analyzed Karjakin-Caruana in a video, so I'm not going to repeat or modify comments by a super-GM who is willing to put some serious efforts into a freely available analysis. I'm not a stakeholder in the company behind Svidler's videos, but compared with Svidler's, the other reports about the games contain much less original analysis (with the possible exceptions of Shipov's videos in Russian ; Grischuk said he watches them). The other decisive game from round 12 has comparably dramatic consequences anyway.
The Mamedyarov-Ding Liren game itself starts with a theoretical battle, following So-Kramnik from round 5 up to move 21 (except a repetition that was skipped). The players assess the position in different ways, each thinking that his side is better placed for the battle. Mamedyarov correctly discards the possibility of a sacrifice Nxe6 at some point and the players don't mention the point where the same move could lead to a endgame that is better for White. After that White starts drifting, Black's queenside pawn should win and White stakes everything on a last combination that nearly succeeds.
Assessing an endgame from a distance is a vital skill for the middlegame. In this particular game, it played a crucial role in a few lines that remained "off-stage", one of which could have completely altered the course of the game. From the viewpoint of an analyst, this is a delicate issue when you work with a computer. A "+1" assessment in the endgame is sometimes a draw, while a "+0.6" assessment in the middlegame is sometimes a win.
Ding Liren is now the only undefeated player in the tournament. Solidity is a quality he will rely on in the last two rounds. It also means that the tie-breaking rules are unfavorable to him, except in an unlikely two-way tie with Mamedyarov.
Up to now, only one pair of games have been won by the same player : Kramnik has beaten Aronian twice. It can happen to potentially four more pairs, if Karjakin beats So, if Caruana beats Aronian, if Mamedyarov beats Kramnik or if So beats Aronian.
Another curiosity is that the four lowest Elo of the tournament occupy the first four places in the temporary ranking after round 12. One could argue that Caruana's Elo is artificially low given his terrible tournament at Wijk-aan-Zee, but it is a surprise to see Karjakin, Ding Liren and Grischuk leading the tournament all together.
After a defeat in round 12, Mamedyarov and Caruana might perform either very well or very poorly. Mamedyarov faces a direct competitor in round 13, namely Grischuk, who has been happily recovering from his defeat in round 1 and from two other mishaps. Indeed Grischuk missed a win against Ding Liren in round 4 and reached a lost position (against Ding Liren too) in round 11 before drawing the game. All in all, he gives a very solid impression.
In Round 14, Karjakin-Ding Liren and Grischuk-Caruana will attract a lot of attention, even in the unlikely scenario where Karjakin looses to So and Caruana to Aronian in round 13. In the more plausible scenario of four draws in round 13, we have a kind of "winner-takes-all" event in round 14.
From the pure viewpoint of chess, it is sad to turn a 14-rounds super-tournament into a one-round crisis with a decisive role for tie-break rules. But for us spectators, there can't be too much suspense !
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* Mamedyarov-Ding Liren from round 12 *
*********************************
chapter 11 of the following study : lichess.org/study/qJOLmzLp
Svidler has analyzed Karjakin-Caruana in a video, so I'm not going to repeat or modify comments by a super-GM who is willing to put some serious efforts into a freely available analysis. I'm not a stakeholder in the company behind Svidler's videos, but compared with Svidler's, the other reports about the games contain much less original analysis (with the possible exceptions of Shipov's videos in Russian ; Grischuk said he watches them). The other decisive game from round 12 has comparably dramatic consequences anyway.
The Mamedyarov-Ding Liren game itself starts with a theoretical battle, following So-Kramnik from round 5 up to move 21 (except a repetition that was skipped). The players assess the position in different ways, each thinking that his side is better placed for the battle. Mamedyarov correctly discards the possibility of a sacrifice Nxe6 at some point and the players don't mention the point where the same move could lead to a endgame that is better for White. After that White starts drifting, Black's queenside pawn should win and White stakes everything on a last combination that nearly succeeds.
Assessing an endgame from a distance is a vital skill for the middlegame. In this particular game, it played a crucial role in a few lines that remained "off-stage", one of which could have completely altered the course of the game. From the viewpoint of an analyst, this is a delicate issue when you work with a computer. A "+1" assessment in the endgame is sometimes a draw, while a "+0.6" assessment in the middlegame is sometimes a win.
Ding Liren is now the only undefeated player in the tournament. Solidity is a quality he will rely on in the last two rounds. It also means that the tie-breaking rules are unfavorable to him, except in an unlikely two-way tie with Mamedyarov.
Up to now, only one pair of games have been won by the same player : Kramnik has beaten Aronian twice. It can happen to potentially four more pairs, if Karjakin beats So, if Caruana beats Aronian, if Mamedyarov beats Kramnik or if So beats Aronian.
Another curiosity is that the four lowest Elo of the tournament occupy the first four places in the temporary ranking after round 12. One could argue that Caruana's Elo is artificially low given his terrible tournament at Wijk-aan-Zee, but it is a surprise to see Karjakin, Ding Liren and Grischuk leading the tournament all together.
After a defeat in round 12, Mamedyarov and Caruana might perform either very well or very poorly. Mamedyarov faces a direct competitor in round 13, namely Grischuk, who has been happily recovering from his defeat in round 1 and from two other mishaps. Indeed Grischuk missed a win against Ding Liren in round 4 and reached a lost position (against Ding Liren too) in round 11 before drawing the game. All in all, he gives a very solid impression.
In Round 14, Karjakin-Ding Liren and Grischuk-Caruana will attract a lot of attention, even in the unlikely scenario where Karjakin looses to So and Caruana to Aronian in round 13. In the more plausible scenario of four draws in round 13, we have a kind of "winner-takes-all" event in round 14.
From the pure viewpoint of chess, it is sad to turn a 14-rounds super-tournament into a one-round crisis with a decisive role for tie-break rules. But for us spectators, there can't be too much suspense !