Has the women's chess year gone as expected?

At the start of the year, I told you the Top 5 things to watch for women’s chess in 2024. Now that the year is almost over, let’s take a look back at those five things and several others, and see if things went according to plan!

GMs

Expectation: Two new women would become GMs.
Reality: No new GMs yet.

Last year, we had two new women become GMs (Zhu Jiner and Vaishali) in the same year for the third time in the last ten years. In chess history, that has only happened in consecutive years one time (2010-11). Would it happen again this year?

So far, no one has done it. Entering the year, Bibisara Assaubayeva was the most likely to reach GM. She was already 2472 and only needed 1 more GM norm. But so far, she has fallen just short of that final norm on a few different occasions, including in the Sharjah Masters and the Women’s Grand Prix. She’s also gotten to 2497, but not 2500. The other player who has gotten close is Alina Kashlinskaya, who only needed two norms. She has barely played this year amidst returning from maternity leave, but actually did make her 2nd GM norm in one of her few tournaments. The last player who has made significant strides towards GM has been Divya Deshmukh. Divya initially had a long way to go, starting the year at 2420 with no norms. But she was still able to make it to 2500. Now she just has to get the norms. If no one makes GM this year, it will certainly be something to watch even more again next year.

The Candidates

Expectation: Lei Tingjie and Aleksandra Goryachkina would have a historic clash at the Candidates.
Reality: Tan Zhongyi won the Candidates.

The 2024 Candidates featured the youngest clash of former Women’s Candidates winners in Candidates history. After eight rounds, it looked like things might be going according to plan as Lei Tingjie and Goryachkina were both tied for the lead with Tan Zhongyi. But Tan, who was the sole leader the entire first half of the tournament, pulled away in the second half and won by a whole 1.5 points. Lei Tingjie was the closest contender, but Goryachkina lost twice and didn’t end up contending at all.

Neither Lei Tingjie, nor Goryachkina have really played much in 2024. Ding Liren got a lot of attention for his hiatus after his World Championship, but Lei Tingjie in relative obscurity has basically done the same. Her performance hasn’t suffered as much as Ding, but she still hasn’t won anything since the previous Candidates. Meanwhile, it is unknown why Goryachkina has been less active. It may have something to do with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine limiting Russian players’ opportunities overseas, but she also hasn’t been playing the Russian Higher League like she used to. She finally just won something again in the Women’s Grand Prix.

Meanwhile, going into 2024, it looked like Tan Zhongyi winning the Candidates would have been bad for women’s chess. She has already been (knockout) Women’s World Champion, but has already lost a World Championship match to Ju Wenjun and has never been Top 5 in the world among women. But so far, Tan has actually been good for women’s chess. She didn’t stop at winning the Candidates. She has since won four major women’s tournaments in a row and also cracked the Top 3. At age 33, she’s the oldest woman in chess history to make her Top 3 debut and the first one to do it past age 30. Out of nowhere, it looks like she could challenge Ju Wenjun for the throne after all, and that’s great for women’s chess.

Surprise Candidates winner Tan Zhongyi. Credit: FIDE / Michal Walusza.

Youth

Expectation: Eline Roebers would make a GM norm.
Reality: Eline hasn’t made a norm, but she has made a 2600+ performance.

18-year-old Eline Roebers had three excellent years in 2021, 2022, and 2023 that saw her rise from an off-the-radar untitled 15-year-old rated under 2100 to an IM with a peak rating of 2421, some of the most exciting attacking games in chess, and success in some of the biggest tournaments like the Olympiad and the World Cup. The next logical step to make 2024 a success too would be to make a GM norm. Instead, she had a bad start to the year, with none of her tournaments or league play going well at all.

Fortunately, there was a reason for this. Eline said she stopped focusing on chess and gave up having a coach because she was too busy with school. Now she’s finally done with school, she’s back to focusing on chess, and she’s already seen a huge turnaround. In that time, four of her last five tournaments have gone well. And just this month, she may have had the best tournament of her career. She was invited to play a four-player double-round-robin with her compatriot Machteld and two established Women’s World Champions, Alexandra Kosteniuk and Mariya Muzychuk. Amazingly, she won the tournament easily ahead of both GMs. She beat all three and her 2622 performance (2600 is the requirement for a GM norm) was the best of her career. It wasn’t possible to make a GM norm because it was only a 6-round tournament, but it shows she’s capable of it.

Expectation: Lu Miaoyi would take a long time to regroup.
Reality: Miaoyi already became an IM.

14-year-old Lu Miaoyi had a great 2022, but a terrible 2023. With no other options if she wanted to keep playing chess tournaments during the pandemic, Miaoyi unusually moved to Serbia in 2022 and played over 500 rated games in a year across all formats. It seemed to work out as she rose from under 2200 to nearly 2400 by year’s end. But by mid-2023, she was back under 2200. Late in the year, she received an unusual lifeline when the Philippines invited her to play a GM norm tournament. How did it go? Terrible. She only scored 1/9 to finish the year at 2250.

Some might see that as a bad sign, but not Miaoyi. Instead, she used it as an opportunity to grow. Much like Arjun Erigaisi after he famously scored 1/8 in the 2016 Aeroflot Open, she completely turned it around thereafter. Even though she had been struggling and had never made an IM norm before, she made three in the next two months. Right after turning 14, she already earned the IM title. Only three other girls ever became IMs at a younger age. What’s more is she kept it up. After becoming an IM, she went back to China and played the Chinese Women’s Championship, one of the tournaments that tripped her up in 2023. Not this time. In 2024, she became the 2nd-youngest Chinese women’s champion in history. She also passed her WGM mom’s peak rating of 2437. I don’t know what Miaoyi’s next goal is, but I’m sure she’ll achieve it.

China’s top prodigy Lu Miaoyi. Credit: Kamatyas.

Expectation: Divya Deshmukh would continue to rise.
Reality: Divya has been rising, and even faster than expected.

18-year-old Divya Deshmukh was only 2300 when chess grinded to a halt because of the pandemic. Fast forward to the start of this year, and Divya had steadily risen to 2420, gaining rating almost every time she played. Now that she was approaching the women’s world elite, would that rise continue? The answer was yes. And not only did it continue, it accelerated. She was gaining about 100 Elo every 18 months, which put her on pace to hit 2500 around March of next year. But in fact, she has already done it.

Rating doesn’t always tell the whole story though, and the whole story is actually better. Over the six months from March to September, Divya performed at a 2530-level over 64 games. She’s excelled at both big opens and top women’s tournaments. She won the Sharjah Challengers and took double gold at the Olympiad. She only missed a GM norm at the GRENKE Open by the narrowest of margins. This was supposed to be the year we would know if Divya is the future of women’s chess, but she’s already the present.

Olympiad

Expectation: China and India would have a historic clash at the Olympiad.
Reality: India won gold easily, but China didn’t send its A-team.

There’s no doubt that China and India are the top two women’s chess countries in the world right now, and that’s only become more true in 2024. But the epic clash between them that was expected at the Olympiad did not happen. China’s Ju Wenjun and Tan Zhongyi both sat out to focus on the upcoming Women’s World Championship match, and Lei Tingjie opted not to go without them (even though her husband was playing for Taiwan!). Without their Big 3, China fell just short of a medal while India, even without Humpy, ran away with the gold.

Olympiad gold medallists India. Credit: FIDE / Michael Walusza.

With their team gold, India has completed its ascension to the top of women’s chess, but only sort of. China is still clearly stronger, with their Big 3 occupying all the top spots in the rating list and both spots in the World Championship match. If China is too uninterested in the Olympiad, the battle for the top country in women’s chess will be fought in other arenas.

Inevitably, at some point in the future, it will be decided by the next generations. Looking ahead, both China’s Zhu Jiner and India’s Divya Deshmukh have made tremendous strides this year as they look to reach the top. Both China and India have plenty of other talents as well. For now, China has a clear grip on women’s chess. And while China will almost certainly stay their course, India is ideally placed to challenge them even if China doesn’t fade.

The World Champion

Expectation: Ju Wenjun would get the chance to prove herself against the men’s world elite.
Reality: She beat two up-and-coming 2700+ GMs and proved herself indeed.

Ju Wenjun made headlines last year when she was invited to the 2024 Tata Steel Masters, which would be by far the strongest tournament of her career. How would she fare? During her career, Ju Wenjun has actually done quite well against 2600s, scoring around 50%, and even done well against low 2700s, beating three of them. But she never even scored against anyone 2732 or above, and would be facing eight of them in Tata Steel alone.

As it turned out, it went quite well. Ju Wenjun scored 4 draws in those 8 games against the ultra-elite, and even beat World No. 6 Alireza Firouzja. Oddly enough, it was the lower-rated players she didn’t fare well against (although not much of a surprise when that included Gukesh and Nodirbek). She cited fatigue as a factor for not having the best tournament overall (only putting up a 2615-level performance, sub-par for her standard against 2600+), owing to Tata Steel being one of the longest super-tournaments at 13 rounds. After Tata Steel, TePe Sigeman followed suit and invited Ju Wenjun to their super-tournament. Seeing as TePe Sigeman is only 7 rounds, would she fare better with fatigue being less of an issue? The answer was yes. She scored 50%, good for a 2694-level performance. She had two 2600+ wins, including one against World No. 26 Vincent Keymer.

All in all, Ju Wenjun has done quite well in these super-tournaments. And her year isn’t even done. She has one more invite to the London Chess Classic in December. She has nothing left to prove at this point. She can just play the tournament like everyone else.

World Champion Ju Wenjun. Credit: Tata Steel Chess / Jurriaan Hoefsmit.

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