Top 5 Things to Watch in Women's Chess in 2024

The 2024 women’s chess season is set for some excitement. There’s plenty we don’t know about which events will happen or who will play them, but there’s also plenty we do know! Here are the top five things to look forward to in 2024!

No. 5: Ju Wenjun plays a super-tournament!

The four-time reigning World Champion Ju Wenjun will play the Tata Steel Masters this January, which many consider to be the top super-tournament in the world (!!) outside of FIDE’s control. It’s Ju Wenjun’s first appearance in Wijk aan Zee since 2016 when she played the Challengers and finished in the middle of the pack. This edition is extra special because among other matchups, we will see World Champion vs. World Champion in Ju Wenjun vs Ding Liren!

This is only the fifth open super-tournament Ju Wenjun has played in her career, the others all around the 2600 level. The most recent was the open Chinese National Championship in 2021, where she drew nearly all of her games until the last round when she beat Yu Yangyi (2709) of all people to hit her expected score! Her strongest tournament to date was the 2017 Fall Chess Classic in St Louis, where she put together an even score against 2614-level opponents, highlighted by back-to-back wins against popular commentator Daniel Naroditsky (2626) and Aleksandr Shimanov (2646)!

The Tata Steel Masters will be Ju Wenjun’s first 2700-level super-tournament. Her opposition will have an average rating around 2720, about 100 points stronger than St Louis in 2017! Ju Wenjun has already proven herself against 2600s, having scored an even 21/42 against all 2600s she has faced in the last eight years. It will be interesting to see if she can do the same against 2700s too!

No. 4: Will Eline Roebers make a GM norm?

Eline Roebers had another good year in 2023. She hit a published rating of 2400 for the first time, raised her peak rating 40+ Elo to 2421, recorded her first victory over a 2600+ GM, and beat a 2500+ top women’s chess player for the first time too. The next step up is to make another norm, and at IM, there’s one only kind of norm left to make: a GM norm.

Eline’s closest chance at a GM norm thus far was at the 2022 Olympiad. If she had beat Pia Cramling in Round 9, she could have got a GM norm if she won her next game too, but unfortunately for Eline, Pia Cramling never loses at the Olympiad. The closest chance Eline had in 2023 was at the European Women’s Team Championship. If she had been paired with a third GM in Round 7, she could have earned a GM norm with a win, but didn’t get the pairing she needed. She didn’t get another chance after losing that round to Teodora Injac, who did end up making a GM norm.

Eline’s best chance this year may again be the Olympiad. And if I were the Royal Dutch Chess Federation, I would do everything in my power to set up a GM norm tournament for her!

Pia Cramling denied Eline Roebers a chance at a GM norm at the last Olympiad. Credit: FIDE / Lennart Ootes.

No. 3: Can two women make GM?

In 2023, we had two new women’s chess players achieve the GM title: China’s 20-year-old Zhu Jiner in April and India’s 22-year-old Vaishali Rameshbabu in December. This year, it could happen again.

Two women achieving the GM title in the same year hasn’t happened two years in a row since way back in 2010 & 2011, the only time it's ever happened, but we’re in good position to see it happen this year. Kazakhstan's Bibisara Assaubayeva, Germany's Dinara Wagner, and Spain's Sara Khadem are all on the precipice. They all have two GM norms and all showed strong form this year. Bibisara and Dinara Wagner both made GM norms last year, while Sara Khadem showed a 2500+ level not seen since her former federation Iran banned her from travelling abroad in early 2020. All three also all need less than 50 Elo to hit 2500, even less than Vaishali this past year.

And don’t count out Nurgyul Salimova, Stavroula Tsolakidou, Polina Shuvalova, or even veteran Lela Javakhishvili at reaching the title soon either!

No. 2: India vs. China at the Olympiad

China has been in full control of women’s chess since Xie Jun won her first World Championship in 1991, over 30 years ago! They’ve also won the most Olympiads since that milestone, with six gold medals. All other Olympiads in that span were won by Georgia (four times), Russia (three), or Ukraine (two). China will be making their return to the Olympiad this year after skipping the last one due to the pandemic. But the greatest threat to China this time might not be any of the past winners. It might be India.

India were the top seeds at the last Olympiad, which they hosted, but didn’t win. This go-around in Hungary though, their team looks even stronger. India may be the only other team besides China to be able to field three 2500+ GMs (Humpy, and hopefully Harika and Vaishali as well). And I don’t even know who will fill the last two spots because Divya, Vantika, Savitha, and Sarayu are all in the mix and all could be pushing towards GM by the time the Olympiad rolls around in September.

India already fell just short at beating China in the Asian Games this past October, but there’s no doubt India can compete with them. The 2024 Budapest Olympiad could be the first of many big showdowns between these two chess powers for decades to come!

India’s bronze medal 2022 Olympiad team was only scratching the surface of what they could achieve. Credit: FIDE / Lennart Ootes.

No. 1: Aleksandra Goryachkina vs. Lei Tingjie in the Candidates

It’s almost never happened that a Women’s Candidates tournament features two former winners, but even more than this, the 2024 Women’s Candidates will be the first-ever edition with two past winners still in their 20s: Aleksandra Goryachkina (the 2019 winner!) and Lei Tingjie (the 2022-23 winner!).

Aleksandra Goryachkina (25) and Lei Tingjie (26) won the last two Candidates. Credit: (left) FIDE; (right) Liu Yi.

It’s a big mystery what form either player will be in. Goryachkina was still on the rise after her 2020 World Championship match defeat, hitting 2600+ in 2021, but she has since dropped back near 2550. Her World Cup win was her biggest triumph last year, but she wasn’t able to continue that 2600-level at the Grand Swiss. Meanwhile, Lei Tingjie was rocketing towards the top, starting from her 2021 Grand Swiss title through her win at the last Candidates, but was brought back to Earth by Ju Wenjun. She hasn’t played a classical event since, so we have no idea if she’s still playing at a 2600-level.

Goryachkina has already won the Candidates in this format, with an emphatic 9½/14 that clinched it with two rounds to spare. Lei Tingjie has only won in the knockout format, so it remains to be seen if she could prevail in a double round-robin as well. I, for one, can’t wait to find out!

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