What is Talent? Dubov vs Caruana

The controversy

"For me, I seriously think that Fabi is probably, in terms of natural gift, arguably the least talented player of the whole top 20-30, just for me.
(...) with Magnus, sometimes you see those moments of genius and you can say to yourself, (...) I can’t do this. I can work a lot and still I can’t do this (...) but with Fabi I don’t know there is like a single chess thing that Fabi can do, and many many other players cannot.”

In a recent podcast, Daniil Dubov made these surprising statements about Fabiano Caruana, world ranked 4th, offering an interesting perspective on talent and natural gifts. Apparently, according to Dubov talent is somewhat of an innate skill that some players like Magnus Carlsen possess but is unattainable to others, no matter how much work an individual puts into.

The term 'talent' is often used to explain a range of phenomena. We talk about talented young players who show great potential, we use it to describe those who seem born for a particular sport, and we refer to it when someone performs every skill with apparent ease. As Dubov suggests, we often reserve the term for individuals who possess an exceptional ability that cannot be acquired through training alone.

Nevertheless, in response to Dubov's comment, Caruana himself remarked:

"When we say natural talent, I don’t really know what this means. When we talk about someone’s level, we understand—we go by rating, by objective criteria. (...) But when we speak about talent, it’s not something that’s really quantifiable, so it’s going to be a very subjective thing.”

The debate: From the Bar to the Books

We marvel at talented players and often overpraise those with unmatched skill, who seem a perfect match for a sport. Consider how Ronaldinho is often spoken of as more of a “pure talent” than Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo, and how if he had focused more on football and training, he could have been even better than these two. Something similar goes for Ronaldo Nazario. Or Federer, still considered by many to be the greatest tennis player of all time despite having fewer Grand Slams than Nadal or Djokovic because he seemed to demonstrate an elegance or more talent while playing than the others. For Dubov, Caruana isn’t as talented as many others in the top ranks.

As people have many opinions on who is talented, we can clearly agree with Caruana that it seems to be a subjective phenomenon, where everyone values different aspects. In psychology, talent remains a debated concept as well, even its very existence. This ties into the long-standing nature vs. nurture debate, where some argue that talent is an innate quality (nature), while others believe that skills and success stem from hard work and the right environment (nurture). Some argue that any skill and level is achievable with study and a right environment and therefore, talent is nonexistant as one is born as a clean slate.

What is Talent?

Despite these differing perspectives, some theories and definitions have been established. Talent is often described as a combination of cognitive, physical, and dispositional traits that enable individuals to acquire skills more easily and achieve excellent performance in specific domains. This set of natural abilities is dependant on the sport and needs to be present in an individual in the right proportions for being considered talented. Although skill acquisition it’s still relevant in top players, it is way less relevant than for youngsters who need to develop the skills to achieve expertise.

The research on talent has focused mostly on the domains of talent identification and development, with the clear understanding that talent is more relevant for young players. Caruana shows great awareness of this difference:

“When we say talent, what does it mean? It’s like someone who is completely raw and someone who is raw is someone who hasn’t been exposed too much to chess, so we’re talking about young players.” He adds: “When we’re talking about 30yo plus players—like me, Magnus, or Hikaru—I don’t really know what talent means [anymore], like you have ratings and you have accomplishments, which determine skill.”

Nevertheless, as a society, we continue to value talent too much, even more so in young players. Take as an example the likes of Erdogmus, Oro, or Sivanandan, whom society and the media marvel at. Their path to greatness often seems linear and undisputed. “Surely if they have beaten Magnus Carlsen’s records by achieving the titles of MF, IM, or GM before him, they will become at least top-10 in the future, right?” Objectively speaking, it’s not that straightforward.

The missing ingredient

While talent is often perceived as the main ingredient for success, it isn’t the only—or even the most crucial—factor. In fact, studies have failed to identify a combination of traits or any type of early success in young individuals that translates into long-term expertise and brilliance in a certain domain. Of course, we know some traits, and scouts play a major role in most sports, but it is still difficult to pinpoint the young players who will certainly have an incredible career and many achievements in the future.

Then, what are we missing? If the most important component is not talent, which one is it? This is where Dubov’s remarks about Caruana take on greater significance. Why does Dubov believe Caruana has reached the top despite not being the most "naturally talented" player?

“It is very much about his mentality, his routine, openings, and hard work—a tremendous amount of hard work. That’s why I respect him so much. To fight Magnus, you don’t need to be a genius—you can work hard and still get there.”

There you have it, the missing ingredient: effort and hard work. Dubov’s statement reflects this crucial truth: effort and hard work matter more than talent alone. According to psychologist Angela Duckworth’s theory of achievement, effort counts twice, and therefore its importance is double that of talent when it comes to the accolades an individual will get in the long term.

Duckworth explains that talent helps to develop skills more quickly the more effort an individual puts in, while achievements occur when the individual puts effort into using the skills they have obtained. Of course, there are other factors influencing someone’s achievements, like coaches, opportunities, and even luck, but this theory gives an interesting view on the balance between talent and hard work.

As Caruana himself points out, once you reach a certain level in chess, or any competitive field, talent becomes less relevant than skill and work ethic. In Duckworth’s view, talent is only a facilitator in the early stages of skill development. It helps some individuals acquire skills faster, but in the long run, it’s the continued effort that leads to mastery. This is why some early prodigies fail to reach the top, while others who seem less talented, like Caruana according to Dubov, succeed through sheer hard work.

In the end, as both Dubov and Caruana acknowledge, hard work is often more important than talent. Whether you’re a young player, a trainer, or a seasoned competitor, if you hear someone marveling about the next Magnus Carlsen remember: while natural traits may give someone a head start, achieving long-term success requires more than talent—it demands a tremendous amount of hard work and relentless effort. In a world that often prizes raw talent, it’s this sustained effort what truly set the greats apart.

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You can watch the episode of the Chess with Mustread podcast - “Daniil Dubov: comeback to the top, Magnus and Fabi” here: https://youtu.be/rimjT4Pj3jY?si=CeA7hFT8sMmfGb_y
(For Dubov's comments on Fabiano Caruana go to minute 23:00)

You can watch the whole episode of the C-Squared podcast - "This is a Story About Talent | Fabi’s response to Dubov" here: https://youtu.be/sLd7FlVHrbc?si=QQhdOD6Ql52G1rbS