French Defense, Exchange Variation
Played often with a performance rating of 2000 (expert rating).
Draws or Wins more often with Black than white.
1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5 3.exd5 ...
If black can draw or win more often then white, then white should not play 2. d4 ... Even if it's the best move. Get out of the french as soon as possible.
1. e4 might be best, but we cannot prevent black from playing 1. ... e6
So we need to learn to avoid blacks #1 best french responses.
It's not easy to be proactive, so how do we avoid a best response? Black will always have a best move, but at least you don't continue in the lines they answer with best moves. Transpose and transpose .... until you are out of book. Then play chess.
Ply 1_Threat Value___PV1________PV2________PV3________PV4________PV5
e4__Best__4.5________1.1________1.0________0.9________0.9________0.6
d4________4.2________1.1________0.8________0.8________0.8________0.7
Nf3_______4.0________1.0________0.9________0.8________0.7________0.6
Nh3_______4.0________1.0________0.9________0.8________0.7________0.6
c4________3.9________0.9________0.8________0.8________0.8________0.6
g3________3.5________0.9________0.8________0.7________0.6________0.5
h3________2.9________0.7________0.7________0.7________0.4________0.4
Nc3_______2.8________1.0________0.6________0.6________0.3________0.3
c3________2.7________1.0________0.6________0.5________0.3________0.3
e3________2.5________0.6________0.6________0.5________0.4________0.4
a3________2.4________0.6________0.5________0.5________0.5________0.3
b3________2.4________0.6________0.5________0.5________0.4________0.4
d3________1.8________0.4________0.4________0.4________0.3________0.3
h4________1.3________0.5________0.3________0.2________0.2________0.1
a4________1.3________0.5________0.3________0.2________0.2________0.1
f4________0.8________0.4________0.2________0.1________0.1________0.0
b4________0.8________0.2________0.2________0.2________0.1________0.1
f3________0.3________0.5________0.3________0.3_______-0.3_______-0.5
Na3_Equal_0.0________0.2________0.1________0.0_______-0.1_______-0.2
g4____Worst___-2.1_______-0.3_______-0.3_______-0.5_______-0.5_______-0.5
____________________________________________________________________
Standings Sorted__PV1_______PV2_______PV3_______PV4________PV5
1st_______________e4________e4________e4________e4________d4
2nd_______________d4_______Nf3________d4________d4________e4
3rd______________Nf3_______Nh3________c4________c4_______Nf3
4th______________Nh3________d4_______Nf3_______Nf3_______Nh3
The best first move sorted by PV threat values:
1st: e4
2nd: d4
3rd: c4 (pawn structure first)
4th: Nf3 (more mobility)
So the move that shows equality is 1. Na3 - Durkin Opening
(It's the total threat PV value of zero.)
Equality does not mean a draw. It actually gave more chances to Black.
So half way up the move list is line 9. It's less good for white and less good for black. If a draw was to appear somewhere, I would assume:
1. c3 — Saragossa Opening
Which white initial move, gives black the least percentage of wins ?
Unfortunately the list is visually incomplete on lichess analysis.
The only assumption left on the visible list is 24%, but does not show the move and the 24% I assume is an average.
The above information was compiled by me on a spreadsheet, using Stockfish 14+NNUE, in local browser on Lichess.
