Hi Lichess
I really think it would be nice to get an idea of the rating inflation (if any) on lichess. Could this be possible?
For example, provide an idea of the average rating vs time,
Thanks!
From
lichess.org/page/rating-systems:
"Lichess ratings start at 1500, as is recommended by the Glicko system definition. The median player rating of Lichess is close to 1500, and there is no significant deviation of this value over time."
I remember seeing a discussion of stats for this somewhere, but currently I've forgotten.
Average rating is rather constant. Inflation comes mainly by a big amount of weak players entering the pool, thus making the average player weaker.
I started here with 2200, then 2300, now Blitz 2412.
Meanwhile I have become worse probably^^
Lichess is a bad joke. The games are meaningless and so are the ratings. The rule is no shaming so accept systematic abuse. It has no authority because like all institutions they are self serving and easily corrupted. Lichess is an AI experiment.
Someone recently investigated this very question using lichess databases from 2019, 2020, and 2021:
medium.com/@todd_bryant/it-seems-that-everywhere-i-look-lately-i-see-something-like-this-58b2d21c8ae7IIRC the main takeaway is that blitz ratings increased by an average of ~100 points per year per player
Here's an example from my own rapid games:
Ratings are getting inflated yes. When I joined there was no 3000 Blitz or 2800 Rapid (except Zhigalko), now there are several ...
I think there is inflation, but not that much. My guess is 50 points over the past year, mainly from new players coming in, starting at 1500 and declining, adding points to the system. I think the current ratings are 200 points above FIDE Classic ratings. It is obvious that many players have improved by playing so much. It would be a good idea to look at players aged 30-50 who have played for many years. They are likely the most stable in playing strength. Professor Elo’s old research showed that players rose slowly after 20, peaked at 35, and declined gradually back to their 20-year level at age 60. Back then, juniors typically improved 130 points a year, especially until about age 16. Now I think some young players actually improve 400 points in a year. Magnus jumped 1000 points in a year. So, you need somehow to exclude players who could be improving, which is juniors and people who are just starting to play chess, both juniors and adults.
Hi all,
thanks for the answers. Indeed, general statements about Glicko being immune to inflation should at least be checked
The study linked by Patrische is very interesting, but it requires some work to repeat :)
I think it would just be very useful if Lichess kept track of the player rating distributions over time (every month, or so), and published a few graphs (the said distributions, and average and dispersion over time). Where can we request such features?
Personally I gained several hundred points in the last year or two, and would like to get an idea of how much of this is real. Probably not that much :)
