The Future Of Chess: The Next Generation

Prodigy Graph

I have selected six players who could be part of the next generation. These players are on the FIDE Top Juniors September 2025 list, and are under the age of 17. They are the most promising candidates for the next generation due to their age and strength. Other players in the top juniors list are either older, or not rated high enough.

Despite being the youngest, Erdoğmuş has the highest rating of them all.

Comparing By Age

These graphs will compare the progress of the prodigies by age, using Carlsen as a benchmark.

Erdoğmuş is already outpacing Carlsen by age. Zemlyanskii is matching Carlsen currently.

Movahed and Woodward are in a similar position currently, they are also almost exactly the same age.

Mishra broke the record for youngest grandmaster at 12yr 5mo (rounded). Gürel's progress was more linear. Mishra has faced a prolonged plateau recently, and Gürel has had a slight plateau.

The ratings shown could be underestimates considering the lack of opportunity that prodigies get to play against higher rated players.

Opportunity Indicator

This chart shows the number of opponents each prodigy has played who were rated at least 100 points higher than them at the time of the game (September 2024-August 2025). This metric is a measure of the amount of opportunities each prodigy has had to play stronger opponents (you need to play stronger opponents to get better).

*This is from Sep 2024-August 2025, not including the Grand Swiss tournament in Sep 2025.

That isn't much opportunity to play stronger players in the past year. Erdoğmuş played a grand total of 1 opponent who was at least 100 points higher rated (Rapport, whom he beat). Erdoğmuş has a high rating, but it shouldn't be just one person. There are plenty of people in the top level. It's the same with the other players. These aren't enough opportunities against stronger players. Young talents are not being given opportunities to play against the best. Top level classical tournaments are insular and are basically a revolving door for the same names and the same faces. Top level classical tournaments have also decreased in number. These prodigies have to rely on open tournaments, FIDE events like Grand Swiss and World Cup and the occasional invites to get by.

Final Thoughts

Erdoğmuş is currently the most promising prodigy as he is the highest rated as well as being the youngest. Zemlyanskii is also someone to look out for due to their young age and high rating. Movahed and Woodward are also potential prospects for top level chess. Gürel and Mishra have had plateaus recently, however this doesn't necessarily mean that they won't reach the top. Predicting which prodigies will reach the top is impossible as some could have a meteoric rise and then fade and some could progress more slowly and eventually reach the top.

Sources

Erdoğmuş, Yağız Kaan Rating
Zemlyanskii, Ivan Rating
Movahed, Sina Rating
Woodward, Andy Rating
Mishra, Abhimanyu Rating
Gürel, Ediz Rating
Carlsen, Magnus Rating