2024 World Chess Championship Preview: GM Ding Liren vs. GM Gukesh D

Lichess is providing a live stream for every day of the world championship. Make sure to tune in to our Twitch or YouTube channels for live stream coverage with our hosts GM Felix Blohberger and IM Laura Unuk, joined by a rotating panel of guests, starting from 09:00 UTC on Monday, November 25.

Schedule

Some History

The title of chess world champion remains the chess world’s most prestigious title and connects its bearer to a long and impressive tradition dating back to 1886. With such legendary names as one can see on our Lichess world champions page, it is no surprise that so many modern players vie viciously to attain the highest title and etch their names in history.

There have been 17 official world champions prior to this match, with GM Ding Liren becoming the 17th world champion in 2023 after GM Magnus Carlsen abdicated his throne and Ding faced 2023 Candidates winner GM Ian Nepomniachtchi. If GM Gukesh D wins this match, he will become the 18th world champion in history.

More History

After winning the world championship on tiebreaks on April 30, 2023, GM Ding Liren played the Superbet Chess Classic Romania, which concluded on May 15, 2023. Ding would later take a long hiatus away from chess, only returning to the board on January 6, 2024 to play the China Chess King 2023, where he finished fourth after losing to GM Wang Hao in the semi-finals and GM Wei Yi in the 3rd place match. Since then, GM Ding Liren has played infrequently and lost more chess ground (not that chess ground). For more on his recent performances, check his game page — suffice to say that Ding has lost a lot of rating and is now ranked #23 in the world on the official November 2024 rating list.

Meanwhile, his challenger for the title, GM Gukesh D, is ranked #5 in the word and that only after a relatively bad performance in his last tournament before the world championship match, the European Chess Club Open. Before that, Gukesh dominated the 2024 Budapest Olympiad, gaining 30 rating points and winning an individual gold medal on board 1. Of course, his breakthrough tournament was the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament, where he finished first and gained 20 rating points, which made him qualify for the match against Ding. Thus, in terms of current form, Gukesh emerges as the favorite, and that is also reflected in most top players' predictions.

What do the Numbers Say?

Has the draw rate in WC matches changed recently, e.g. in the engine era?

The answer is yes, the draw rate has increased!

Does the draw rate in WC matches depend on the rating difference between players?

As expected, the higher the rating difference, the lower the draw rate, so we can expect a more decisive world championship this time around.

How was the winner rated relative to the loser in previous matches?

The x-axis shows the years, so one can identify WC matches. The y-axis shows the rating difference from the perspective of the winner, i.e., points below zeros mean that the rating-underdog won. Only twice the winner was rated lower relative to their opponent than Ding – in both cases GM Vladimir Kramnik. If Ding were to win, the dot for this match would go on the lower green Ding - Gukesh line. if Gukesh were to win, the dot would go on the upper, un-annotated green Gukesh-Ding line.

Match win probabilities with the probabilities of winning with X games to spare

"0" in the x-axis means tiebreak; positive values mean Ding wins, the higher the earlier — "1" on the last game, "2" with one game to spare, and so on. Negative values follow the same pattern but for Gukesh. Therefore, the highest probability result is that Gukesh wins with one game to spare. There is a decent chance of a tiebreak, and Ding will win most of those.

Player Predictions

GM Magnus Carlsen: "We could see a bloodbath." Source and more analysis by Carlsen

GM Fabiano Caruana: "I think maybe... Ding. I'd still maybe go with Ding. I don't know. I know this is very controversial." Source

GM Arjun Erigaisi: "I think it will be a massacre. It will... Gukesh will just crush it." Source

GM Viswanathan Anand: "It's clear that Ding is suffering a bit, and the only thing is, there's always light at the end of a tunnel." Source

GM Judit Polgar: "There is a good chance that he (Gukesh) can become world champion." Source

Press Conference

Photo: Maria Emelianova / Chess.com

The full press conference is available here.

Memorable quotes:

GM Ding Liren: (on being asked about the importance of winning the first game) "I think everybody would choose to win first, but the one who wins last has the biggest smile."

GM Gukesh D: (on being asked about the long months of preparation) "My preparation, where me and Magnus come from are very different. Because he has been doing this for like 10, maybe close to 10 years, and this is my first experience with the world championship. So it's all new for me and it's easier to enjoy and be excited about this compared to Magnus."