Why is Gukesh avoiding the French?

Ding Liren surprised a lot of people in Game 1 of the World Championship match. Not only did he win as Black, but he managed to do so with the French Defence. Since then, Gukesh has only repeated 1.e4 in Game 5, where he played the Exchange French and held a draw in a worse endgame. The entire chess world has been left wondering, "What has Ding prepared in the main line of the Classical French, and why are Gukesh and his team avoiding it?"

Luckily for you, this post will answer both parts of the question so you won't have to wonder any longer. We will examine the recent developments in the French over the past few years and discuss the role of Gukesh's and Ding's main seconds (Gajewski and Rapport, respectively) in their opening preparation.

2021

Grischuk prepares a concrete line of the French for the second half of the 2020-21 Candidates, and it quickly becomes popular among other grandmasters because it limits White's options to fight for an advantage.

2022

Gukesh's coach, Gajewski, publishes Lifetime Repertoires: Gajewski's 1. e4 − Part 2, where he recommends going into the slightly better endgame that we just analyzed. About this 8...Qb6 line, he says Black should equalize but, "It is one of the most difficult and unpleasant lines for Black that I can think of. Long and difficult lines make it really easy to mix them up (which many players frequently do!)".

2023

In the Ding - Nepo match, Ding plays the French in Game 7 and then switches back to 1.e4 e5 openings like the Berlin and Marshall.

Now that we are all up to speed on French theory, let's discuss what is going on in the current World Championship match. Despite Gajewski's opinion, Gukesh seems to be afraid of allowing the forcing lines after 8...Qb6, where he has no experience and his opponent could be extremely well prepared.

However, based on Ding's approach to openings so far in the match, it is unlikely that he has invested much effort into this line. If it were Caruana or Nepo playing the French, then you might expect the most theoretical choice. But Ding is a chill guy and has probably prepared something less dangerous, like 7...a6 which is also much better suited to the style of his second, Rapport. A game between Caruana and Carlsen in the 7...a6 line is analyzed below.

Conclusion: If Gukesh wants to maximize his opening advantage as White, he should return to 1.e4 and not be afraid of Ding's preparation in the Classical French.