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What's the possibility for a 1500 player to beat Magnus with rook (and move) odds in slow games?

My friends and I talked about odds games. One of my friends believed that a professional player can normally give rook (and move) odds to random players (NN's) and win all of them, like in some famous games. But then we realized that giving rook odds is pretty difficult and if you're lucky, you can beat the strongest engine. After several failures, my 1500 friends and I were all able to beat stockfish level 8 with rook odds without any take backs. So it's definitely very possible to beat Magnus with rook odds as 1500 players. The question is, what's the possibility to beat Magnus with rook odds? We needed 4-9 games to beat SF Level 8 with rook odds without take backs (If you want to try, I suggest trading queens and rooks and pieces early), so I guess the possibility is around 10%-20%. I'm talking about slow games (like 20+10), because if it's blitz, 1500 players have little chance and will get flagged/lose all pieces.
By the way, don't say the possibility is 0, because it is not (The number of legal moves in every position is finite, therefore there are finite choices; if you play the best moves you can win because you are up a rook; so even a random mover has a positive possibility to beat Magnus)
First of all, Good Job.
Second of all, Magnus might play more creatively than stockfish level eight.
He might try to surprise you with a gambit or another sort of attack. He might also play more aggressive so there is less chance of you capitalizing on the lack of rooks at the endgame. So it might be harder to beat magnus even though stock fish is rated higher than him.
I suspect it's pretty slim. Moves that are often casual errors for 1500 players are serious blunders for GM's, which is why I suspect he'd be fine as long as he had a queen, two bishops, and at least one knight.
Magnus would set up at least 50 different traps during the game just to test you xD And you will eventually fall for one of them and he'd have a mate in #20 lol

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