I may be wrong here, but I believe time since your last game affects your rating deviation. If you don't play a bullet game for a period of time time then when you play someone of the same rank much later it won't be win or lose +-10 as always but rather around +-20 instead. It appears the longer you break the higher it deviates.
@Ysharia Its possible, however that doesnt explain why so many people suddenly got so much higher rating.
@Seallv, I don't think so. They use Glicko-2 rating method as I know.
I can only make conclusions from playing long term in the 2200 - 2500 range for blitz and bullet.
From observation, 2200 in November 2018 is equivalent to 2400 now. Most players in this range have experienced a 150-200 point rating inflation in both bullet and blitz. Look at enough rating graphs and you'll see the same trend for almost everyone highly active. It's common to encounter the same opponents, score about the same, neither of us having improved, yet we are both rated 200 points higher. Personally, I despise chess books with all my soul and would only look at one if threatened, so I'm quite certain there have been no brain gains.
Me and my friends affectionately call this The Great Rating Inflation of 2019.
The primary boost occurred in approximately August of this year and then there seem to have been a slow trickle of diminishing returns since that time. Two ways to assess the precise amount of inflation would be (1) comparing the equivalent ratings for percentiles now and in the past. (2) Or if there is an influx of enough weaker players to significantly change 1, then you could directly compare ACPL from analyzed games to compare what ratings are required for the same average performance on the board.
Since you can't quantify your own progress on ratings alone, in the 2200 - 2400 rating range I strongly recommend the following rule of thumb:
- If you've gained more than 200 points in the last 12 months, you're probably getting better.
- If you've gained 150-200 points in the last 12 months, you're probably maintaining your skill.
- If you've gained less than 100 points in the last 12 months, you can have high certainty that you've gotten worse.
Warm regards, Burrower.
As I mentioned above, in another thread I asked the similar question, why a 2200 blitz player is suddenly ranked 8000 instead of 2000?
What in your opinion could cause such a rating inflation? As people say, the only thing that has changed is this rating deviation. I still don't get the point.
Perhaps lichess acquired another chess playing site and all its players who were overrated relative to the original lichess players. That would explain the increase in lichess player ratings and the simultaneous lowering of one's rank.
Okay, but how can you explain that the number of players has not inreased (at least not a lot)?
Me too! My rating improved 500 points since Lichess changed the app!
@miretota It's a mystery. How can your rating go up and rank decline without a big influx of new players?
Not sure about the number of players, but the total number of games played on Lichess has increased dramatically over the last year: