Starting my weekend best of 10 after a long of week or working and studying, question chances of Magnus losing to a 1500?
i would say 50-50. just throw c4 after 1.d4 nf6 youre in good position
I wanted to know too. The numbers say he's expected to win 9 games out of ten million, draw 16, and lose the others. I might have counted the 0s wrong, so don't blame me if I'm an order of magnitude off.
a 1500 has approx 1/2526 chance of beating Magnus.
magnus has 2861 Elo
1500 + 1200 = 2700
if he were 2700 elo there would be 1/1000 chance
but he has 161 more elo than that so multiple 1000 by 10^(161/400) and you get 2526
just quick mafs in my head, correct me if its wrong
magnus has 2861 Elo
1500 + 1200 = 2700
if he were 2700 elo there would be 1/1000 chance
but he has 161 more elo than that so multiple 1000 by 10^(161/400) and you get 2526
just quick mafs in my head, correct me if its wrong
^ yes, asdf is correct, the formula to convert a rating difference D to winning probability P is the following
P(D) = 1/(1+10^(-D/400))
to be precise, my convention is
P(A beats B) = 1/(1+10^(- (r(A)-r(B))/400) ) where r(A) is the rating of player A and r(B) of player B.
And their result seems to be about right.
so, a 1500 player would win roughly one game every 2500. Which is a tiny number but it's not completely out of the realm of possibilities.
As a final note, remember that we are talking about a 1500 FIDE, not a 1500 on lichess.
P(D) = 1/(1+10^(-D/400))
to be precise, my convention is
P(A beats B) = 1/(1+10^(- (r(A)-r(B))/400) ) where r(A) is the rating of player A and r(B) of player B.
And their result seems to be about right.
so, a 1500 player would win roughly one game every 2500. Which is a tiny number but it's not completely out of the realm of possibilities.
As a final note, remember that we are talking about a 1500 FIDE, not a 1500 on lichess.
@asdf5656 said in #4:
> a 1500 has approx 1/2526 chance of beating Magnus.
>
> magnus has 2861 Elo
> 1500 + 1200 = 2700
> if he were 2700 elo there would be 1/1000 chance
> but he has 161 more elo than that so multiple 1000 by 10^(161/400) and you get 2526
>
> just quick mafs in my head, correct me if its wrong
The chances of a 1500 ELO player beating Magnus are as follows: 0,03956654517196386790141937512934953 ..... (to infinity and beyond). WolframAlpha has calculated this proportion.
> a 1500 has approx 1/2526 chance of beating Magnus.
>
> magnus has 2861 Elo
> 1500 + 1200 = 2700
> if he were 2700 elo there would be 1/1000 chance
> but he has 161 more elo than that so multiple 1000 by 10^(161/400) and you get 2526
>
> just quick mafs in my head, correct me if its wrong
The chances of a 1500 ELO player beating Magnus are as follows: 0,03956654517196386790141937512934953 ..... (to infinity and beyond). WolframAlpha has calculated this proportion.
@FryderykFranciszek said in #6:
> The chances of a 1500 ELO player beating Magnus are as follows: 0,03956654517196386790141937512934953 ..... (to infinity and beyond). WolframAlpha has calculated this proportion.
the number you copied and pasted from WolframAlpha is roughly 0.04%, which is exactly 1 out of 2500, as the poster predicted.
> The chances of a 1500 ELO player beating Magnus are as follows: 0,03956654517196386790141937512934953 ..... (to infinity and beyond). WolframAlpha has calculated this proportion.
the number you copied and pasted from WolframAlpha is roughly 0.04%, which is exactly 1 out of 2500, as the poster predicted.
all 1500 have the guts to beat magnus.
The only part there missing is 1300 rating points.
The only part there missing is 1300 rating points.
from watching some IMs and GMs play random people with random ratings online over the years, i can't imagine a 1500 ever beating a 2700+.
Isn't that kind of like asking if a newborn can earn a degree? Only jesting because the question is jesty. Much love.
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