Atomar World Cup Recap Part 1: Knowing the rules is important!!

As the most undeserving and shameless player in the entire atomar WC, I have to do some work to clear my name. I'll try to analyze the finished matches and come up with a champion prediction. Most champion favorites (like vlad, fastie, etc) haven't played a game yet so predicting is hard at this point.
I don't know what happened in some of the matches, so I can only guess.
First things first, what is atomar? All information is here: https://chronatog.com/2021/08/the-2021-atomar-world-championship/
The rules are here: https://chronatog.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/atomar-chess-rules.pdf
Just remember, the king doesn't explode in captures; it can capture anything but the other king.

White and black change colors after each rematch.

Round 1 matches

Stephanie_s_Symphony 5.5-0.5 Equanimity8

Game 1 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/kb1v8v1r They went for the very drawn opening: Nf3 Nf6 Ne5 Ne4 Nxd7 Nxd2. I call this the Big Knight Trade opening. They decided to trade more pieces into an equal pawn endgame, where black (Equanimity8) messed up and somehow they agreed to a draw with black down two pawns (it's possibly a draw but who would take a draw in that position?)
Game 2 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/zdt10g19 White (Equanimity8) went for the C-knight attack (which is a good white opening). Black (Stephanie) defended and decided to trade a queen for R+N+P which is not that bad. White had a big attack in the middlegame but black castled and the white queen traded for R+B, which leaves black a pawn up. The black king got active in an unclear endgame, black won the knight and white blundered mate in one.
Game 3 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/wmmqukdr I don't know what happened, it went Na3, b5, e4, black timed out.
Game 4 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/jyrs1ncr White started with e4 and black played the French. Then in a equal-ish position white ran out of time somehow.
Game 5 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/i96ryzx8 White started with the c-knight attack, both of them sacrificed a knight for a bishop pin, black lost a piece but won back a rook in unclear positions. In an endgame where white is a pawn up and slightly better, black ran out of time.
Game 6 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/yy4snkcz They played the French again, traded pieces and white won a piece and a pawn with a nice fork. Just when white was about to claim their first win in the match, white blundered their king out of nowhere in a totally winning endgame up a rook. The match ended with Stephanie advancing to face fastie.

Puddingbirne 5.5-1.5 cFlour

Game 1 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/cvb1ebbi White (cFlour) played the 2N but decided to get the center mined, black (Pudding) won a piece with check and white blundered mate in one by not seeing the check.
Game 2 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/g3fzrulr White started with Nf3 d4, gambit a pawn for two active bishops and won back the material with interest. However, in a totally winning endgame up a rook, white not only didn't take the free knight for several moves, but missed a check by the knight as well. Massive scam but cFlour tied the match.
Game 3 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/vwdbr95c White went for the c-knight attack but lost a knight again in the opening by taking the central pawns incorrectly. Black safely converted, limited the white rook and eventually forked it, finally black got his rook in place to cut off white's king and won with R+Q.
Game 4 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/1mvmaale White went for the c-knight knightrider attack, black defended incorrectly (2...Nf6?), simply lost a rook with no compensation in the opening. White again cut off black's king, won all black pawns, and forced a zugzwang mate with R+P.
Game 5 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/v1rn127f White gave away two bishops for two pawns without reasons, and eventually the white king was more active and was able to promote a pawn. The game ended with a classic KQ vs K mate (you first stalemate the king)
Game 6 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/coewho94 They started with a central block, traded all pieces and ended up with a symmetric position. It's a completely drawn pawn endgame, white was a bit lucky that he was just able to stop the side pawn. The game was drawn by K vs K.
Game 7 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/varsfs9h White started the game with e4 and fell for the classic Nf6 f3? trap. Black won a rook and a pawn, traded all the pieces and secured a win by a R+Q mate again. Puddingbirne advances and will face luka3916 next.

LearningVariants vs neroccag

Neroccag probably forfeits by the look of it. LV can win anyway.
Predeiction: LV wins, 6-0 or forfeit

Iubar vs Jnanor

I don't know what happened, Iubar gets tough opponents in both AWC and Atomar. It's hard to decide who will win, but I feel bad for Iubar so for now I'd say Iubar will win.
Prediction: Iubar wins, 6-4

The_Troubled_Patzer 0-1 Rightline3127

RL3127 claimed the win. So what? I have the right to claim the win, why not? I know I might win the anti sportsmanship award, but I waited for one hour, no less.

Crepuscular vs Lavarider

We all like them. They are nice fellows in the house server. But Crep is probably stronger in atomar. Not that easy to tell though.
Prediction: Crepuscular wins, 6-1

Camisapricity 4.5-5.5 IMakeManyMistakes

IMMM has better sportsmanship than me. He was given a FREE CHANCE FOR ROUND 2 IN AWC AND DIDN'T TAKE IT. I think two64brocc should at least be grateful and give him one game. That being said, he's good in Atomar and should have good chances to go far.

Game 1 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/x3cjlils They opened with the mirrored c-knights. White (Cami) continued with the idea of d4, Bg5 and after a trade material is even. But white failed to defend the knight threats (Rc1 instead of a3) and lost an exchange. However white managed to get some counterplay and opened the c-file, then won a piece. Black got the king active but white was able to be up a piece in the endgame. However, white missed chances to win, and in a drawish endgame, played Kc7?? instead of Kc5 to lose immediately. Black got a queen and white, probably unfamiliar with the rules, hung mate in one.
Game 2 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/rsrmo9js White (IMMM) went for the quick c-knight opening with a knight sac. Black successfully won a pawn in the opening but white managed to get the king active. White's knight jumped back and forth in black's territory, black hung mate in one in a time scramble.
Game 3 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/sgptxmio White started with positional d4 but black defended well. They went full Chronatog in the opening, eventually white (Cami) failed to trade queens and black won 3 pieces for the queen. The white queen was not able to force a perpetual and black won the queen with a rook. Eventually black blundered the extra piece but white flagged before taking the piece.
Game 4 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/qiqsbbrq White started with the Nh3 e4 opening, the opening is kind of boring but black allowed a bishop invasion and got the queen trapped. Black resigned.
Game 5 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/f98o3w9t Desperately in need of a win, white started with the Grob. They pushed the queenside pawns and had some trades, but black walked into a knight fork. White was able to convert the position by trading down to KQ vs K.
Game 6 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/1mhzhxtt White again started with Nh3 e4. Remember: Nh3 g5 doesn't lose here. White sacrificed a knight but black was able to trade into an endgame with N+2 vs 3 pawns. Black was able to defend the last pawn and white can't stop the pawn after white forked the pawn and knight. (But black can win anyway) Black eventually won with KQ vs K.
Game 7 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/zwne0cju White pushed the queenside pawns on the queenside but was punished by a bishop invasion. White countered with a knight invasion and won a rook and a pawn by a knight fork. White traded pieces, queened a pawn, but then blundered mate in 1 in an obviously winning position.
Game 8 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/elsx7tdo White went for the kamikaze and they traded knights. However black won a tempo and got the two bishops into the attack. White fought back by winning two pawns in trades but again lost a rook due to a knight fork. White advanced the king to win pawns but forgot that it's possible to get mated in atomar -- black had the 2 rooks ladder mate!
Game 9 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/eduwnpal White went for d4 and the position was soon basically closed. Black successfully won a piece and a pawn by a rook skewer. However white got the king into black's territory and queened the far advanced pawn. Black pushed the pawns and eventually got a queen as well, after several checks, black traded queens into an obviously drawn endgame and got the half point he needed and won the match.
Game 10 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/cdrcmgmf White started with the c-knight attack and won material. However, black had counterplay with more developed pieces and white hung mate in one in an unclear position -- doesn't matter though.

DanDan2016 5.5-1.5 hellfira

Game 1 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/4cpxbgvr White (DanDan) went with Nc3 which is "best by test". They traded pieces and the material was equal till the endgame. Then black (hellfira) won a pawn with the king but white won black's last pieces with a sneaky discovered attack. White converted by cutting off the king and winning the kingside pawns.
Game 2 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/tp3wdi6m White started with Nc3 as well and won a piece and a pawn by a queen fork. They traded pieces, black somehow lost more pieces and had an endgame a piece and 3 pawns down. Black avoided trading rooks at all costs, ending up allowing a queen by white and hanging the rook to a bishop, white won easily.
Game 3 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/wzvwzwnj Black got fool's mated. That happened. Sometimes you forget the basics.
Game 4 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/zx8aekxi After a big trade opening, white gave away a knight when they don't have to. The rest is converting which Dandan is good at. DanDan made a queen and checkmated the white king.
Game 5 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/e9z91ynk White opened with Nc3, won a pawn in the opening but failed to stop the black knight from entering. Black won a rook, they got into a somewhat drawish endgame, white did win the rook back but had only a bishop left. Draw.
Game 6 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/wkcotzhl White again opened with Nc3 and scammed a piece and a pawn. But then white played Ne6?? losing a piece with check. Black won more pieces with a bishop invasion and was up a rook in the endgame, eventually black cut off white's king and white resigned.
Game 7 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/e2ajegij White played Nc3 Nf6 e4, black allowed the invasion. In order to avoid losing material, black bongclouded the king and got mated by two bishops and a knight. It was a very nice mate to end the match.

N0puedeser 1-6 Stephenhello

Game 1 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/jl6svwo9 White (Nopu) started with e4, black (Stephen) went for the French. Black decided to trade Q for R+N+P early on, which is normally OK. Black maneuvered the two bishops and the rook to trap the white queen and the rest was easy. White couldn't stop the passed pawn and resigned.
Game 2 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/vvztfiug White (Stephen) started with e4 Nc3. Black didn't notice the trick and lost a rook and a pawn. Black went for counterplay and won back a pawn, and white decided to leave e2 pawn on the board -- not that bad if black can't check. White really didn't care about the e2 pawn the whole game for some reason, used the two rooks and 2 other pawns to trap black's king, black hung mate in one.
Game 3 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/ssupokjn White played e4, fell for the classic trap but black didn't go for Ng4. The game was then equal until white lost a piece to en passant (Google it, holy hell). Then black got in with a queen and a bishop and white blundered mate in one.
Game 4 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/9odfyine White played d4 and went for a quick Q for RNP exchange. The black queen is again a sorry piece, white pushed the passed pawn and just queened. Black was down many pieces and got mated on the back rank.
Game 5 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/pfiuh8dc Again, black did not go for Ng4 when he could. White sacrificed a pawn for piece activity but the compensation was not enough. Black pushed the queenside pawns and just queened. With three queens on the board, black obviously mated white.
Game 6 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/8t6t9lq9 Black somehow fell for the same attack as Game 2 and lost a rook and a pawn again. They traded pieces and entered an endgame where white was up a rook and a bishop, but white played Ke2!!!!!! while in check (probably a misclick) and black took the king to claw one back.
Game 7 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/1dzimhib Stephen didn't get tilted and won a pawn quickly as black. Again, a strong queenside pawn storm cost white the queen, and white resigned when he would be down two whole queens and an exchange. Stephen won the match convincingly and will be facing VO.

Queeneatingdragon vs Thelongestday

Thelongestday is closed and chances are they will forfeit. QED can probably win anyway.
Prediction: QED wins, 6-0 or forfeit

Opabinia vs cliriocors

cliriocors is closed and chances are they will forfeit. Opa can probably win anyway.
Prediction: Opa wins, 6-0 or forfeit

Ingvarlie vs R2300

R2300 was closed for some time but reopened. Can he beat Ingvarlie? Ingvarlie is a decent instinctive player and R2300 played too much Racing Kings where you can't even check. So it will be tough for R2300.
Prediction: Ingvarlie wins, 5.5-2.5

Superprosper vs Shepbox

This will be a close match, if it ever happens at all. Both of them played their AWC matches, so I doubt any of them will forfeit. It's hard to predict -- shepbox is probably better in scamming, and superprosper is better in shorter time controls?
Prediction: Shepbox wins, 7-5

RoyalManiac 6-0 Sam_125

Game 1 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/bom7fk2d They traded most pieces in a big trade opening. Going into the pawn endgame with equal material, black (Royal) managed to get the king active into white's position and won several pawns. Eventually white king was outside the square and black queened. White took the defended pawn and lost the king.
Game 2 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/rsczmyry In a center block opening, white managed to get Nb5 in and black forgot to respond to a check.
Game 3 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/uz9jpnuf White somehow did not take the queen in a trade opening, resulting in black being up material and white resigned.
Game 4 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/rof4ubu8 In a d4 opening, black lost a piece in the knight explosion trade, and lost a rook. Despite winning back the rook and a pawn, black was down a piece. Instead of taking the free pawn, black went back with the king and decided to hang mate in 1 the move after.
Game 5 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/bzyz7vbe The opening was normal and white got into a playable middlegame position, but then instinctively put the queen next to the black king and got taken. Black traded and emerged with a rook up, cut off the white king and mated.
Game 6 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/v9g7oduj In e4 Qg4 opening, instead of Qg5 black lost a piece by playing Qh5. They traded pieces but white eventually got two pawns and a piece up, black resigned and RM advanced to round 2.

mathwhiz16 vs Kevinlel

Kevin is quite inactive recently. I'm not sure if he will play. Probably a forfeit win for mathwhiz.
Prediction: mathwhiz wins, 6-0 or forfeit

dpalm 4-1 DualityGg

Game 1 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/0xgsjhi8 White (dpalm) went for a big trade opening, and black didn't respond to a check.
Game 2 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/q2olfhho The opening was normal atomic-ish, and black decided to give away a knight with check for no reason, then white decided to give away a queen for no reason, the black didn't take, then white gave away the queen again in a strong attack, then white gave away an exchange, forced black king to get active and then forgot to respond to a check.
Game 3 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/57ipwdcj White went for e4 Qg4 and traded Q for RNBP which is normally good. White sacrificed pieces for pawns to get into an attack, then black hung mate in 1, then white didn't take the king and hung mate in 1 himself instead. Fft (Duality) pulled one back.
Game 4 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/ou8qk5h4 They traded most pieces in the opening. Black successfully saw the opportunity to fork and win a pawn. White could take a free black pawn to get into an equal endgame, instead he decided to let the pawn queen. Eventually white was checkmated.
Game 5 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/jgz9qr3v They decided not to trade any pieces in a normal trade opening, a black knight was hanging on d8 for several moves, the material situation is still somewhat balanced going into the endgame, where black got his king active but somehow blundered mate in 1 (misclick?)
Fft forfeited the rest of the match, possibly because he's tilted from the misclick.

Round 2 matches

It's hard to predict Round 2 matches because we don't know much about the strength of some players.

fast-tsunami vs Stephanie_s_Symphony

How good is fastie in atomar? He's the top seed, we will see his strength in this match. From what I've seen, fastie beat an anonymous player 5-0 and beat lesha 2.5-1.5, so I'd say he's a huge favorite -- at least in round 2. Steph will probably scam a draw?
Prediction: fastie wins, 5.5-0.5

luka3916 vs Puddingbirne

Again, how good is luka? He beat Dandan 6-1 but it was 1/2+0. He is 3-10 against Wolfram. Puddingbirne is a solid player, but will he beat luka? This is surely going to be a close match, I'm leaning towards luka because he seems more experienced in this variant.
Prediction: luka wins, 5.5-4.5

CyberShredder vs (most likely) LearningVariants

Why is CyberShredder seeded so high? It's not Racing Kings after all -- but we don't know much about their strengths. Cyber never played a game of atomar. LV got adopted by Wolfram but he at least played some games and got draws against luka, so he will be the favorite.
Prediction: LV wins, 6-3

FonsecaErnesto vs (Iubar/jnanor)

Ernesto is a mysterious player. We saw his atomic strength in AWC, but can he beat Iubar or jnanor? He doesn't even have a cv.t account listed. We'll see his atomar strength in this match. It would be hard to predict, but again I'm not convinced that Ernesto will win easily.
Prediction: Iubar wins, 5.5-3.5. (If jnanor advances, Ernesto wins, 6-4)

CalmWaters 3.5-5.5 Rightline3127

The most scammy and undeserved win in the entire Atomar WC? I'll keep it short because it was not a good match.
Game 1 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/vekle5k3 White(CalmWaters) went for e4 and black(I) went for the French. It seems that my opponent didn't know the rules very well, I scammed him by taking the "poisoned knight", castling out of check, taking the side pawn and eventually took his king.
Game 2 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/upug7gyf I also went for my normal e4, black also played the French, black eventually pushed through the middle to get a pawn at d7, I also gave away a free knight. I was down a whole rook in the endgame, then I scammed into a drawn position and then flagged white.
Game 3 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/mpwccc0l White went for the two knights and I lost several pieces due to atomic-ish attacks. I was down a rook for a queen in a probably losing endgame but I scammed and got a draw.
Game 4 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/qgogmbgc I won a queen early on but gave many pieces back. And I didn't find Bxf5 in the endgame in a time scramble and the game was eventually a draw.
Game 5 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/mkkeynam I lost several pieces in the two knights opening, and in a losing position with the king cut off, I gave up scamming and resigned.
Game 6 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/pdfhxei0 In a trade opening, I lost material again. I tried to defend everything and black hung mate in one.
Game 7 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/funk5mdb In a French defence opening, I got into trouble by opening up the f-file, and got mated by a queen+bishop battery. It was a nice game for my opponent.
Game 8 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/ciwfifhr I played the "best by test" Nc3, and it's again a trade opening. I was up a piece for a pawn in the middlegame but blundered the exchange. I still managed to take all black's pawns and drew a R vs N endgame.
Game 9 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/tcupuybq I finally successfully held myself in the two knights opening. We traded pieces into an endgame, I had a B and N for R and 2P. But we got into time scramble and I won a rook. White was able to force a draw next move, winning my last pawn, but he sadly flagged.

Hysterix vs (most likely) Crepuscular

I don't know if Hysterix studied this. He lost to DanDan twice and didn't play a game after that. I'm not convinced by his strength.
Prediction: Crepuscular wins, 6-2

Astavakra vs IMakeManyMistakes

Astavakra beat cFlour convincingly in atomar, but he lost to DanDan and Wolfram a lot. Did he play enough games to get the idea of this game? IMMM is not that easy to beat. I'm predicting a big upset just to praise IMMM's sportsmanship.
Prediction: IMMM wins, 7.5-6.5

LecW 2-6 DanDan2016

Game 1 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/8ollcl3p In a variant of the trade opening, black (Lecw) got scammed and lost a pawn. Black didn't take the material and aimed for counterplay. But after pieces were traded, white (DanDan) was simply two pawns up with the black king cut off. White slowly made progress and got a new queen and black resigned soon after.
Game 2 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/qu6fslgy The opening was pretty standard Nf3 e4, but white dropped a little amount of material here and there and as a result black was two pieces up, white also got scammed by losing the rook and pawn together. Finally white took a defended pawn with the king.
Game 3 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/zbl1gyuu The opening was a trade opening and the black king got very active in the middlegame. Black got scammed by exploding his own bishop. In an endgame probably good for black, white flagged.
Game 4 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/r7plzzzj It was again a trade opening and they quickly traded into a rook endgame. Both kings got active but black had a better pawn structure and one more pawn until he decided to explode his own rook. He saved a draw by taking white's last pawns in a time scramble.
Game 5 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/uh0shwcy It was Nc3 Nf6 again and black used queen tactics to win back material in the best way. In the endgame, black had NB for R and 2 pawns, which is roughly even; in a possibly drawn endgame with R and P vs B, black was so desperate to get the king back that he walked into rook's attack. In a time scramble, of course.
Game 6 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/3ow0yqd7 d4 Bg5 is an interesting opening choice by white. Both white and black found some nice moves during the middlegame, like the way to deal with the invading bishop. Eventually white was down a rook but his king took all black's queenside pawns. White traded black's last pawn successfully and got into 3 pawns vs Rook in a time scramble, and they drew by having only kings left.
Game 7 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/isabnswy White chose e4 Nc3, black countered with Qg5xg7. White ended up getting a queen for two pieces which is normally good for the queen. Black got into a pin and lost more material, white offered a queen for rook trade and hunted down the d pawn. Black was just down too much material and resigned.
Game 8 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/wa7m8jdq White fell into the classic trap and allowed Nb4, but luckily e2 is an OK square for his king. Black won a piece by taking a pawn with the king, missed by white. But instead of the simple exf4, black allowed a knight invasion and lost material. Then black still won back the exchange via a skewer, and was two pawns up in a rook endgame. Since a draw is simply a win for DanDan, white played for a win when he couldn't, and got mated.

VariantsOnly vs Stephenhello

Again, how good is VO? He beat Dandan but it was 1+1. He beat vlad 8.5-3.5 but it was 1+0. He beat Bruheimo(?) but lost to Opa in 3+2 games. I think he will struggle against Stephen who studies quickly.
Prediction: Stephenhello wins, 6-3

Dartanian vs QueenEatingDragon (likely)

I know nothing about either of them. QED beat Dandan but Dandan was probably just started learning. I don't know who will win. I'll trust QED for now because at least I know his account.
Prediction: QED wins, 6-4

two64brocc vs Opabinia (likely)

Two64brocc. Lucky guy. If he was playing me he's out of the AWC already. Opa is decent in atomar, but two64brocc played well against Wolfram, who is the best atomar player in my opinion. So I'm leaning towards brocc. Hopefully this will be a good match.
Prediction: two64brocc wins, 8-6

Wolfram_EP vs (Ingvarlie/R2300)

Wolfram studied this variant a lot and is currently probably the strongest. I don't see him slipping up here.
Prediction: Wolfram wins, 6-0

vlad_00 vs (Superprosper/shepbox)

Vlad. He lost a lot of games recently. To Dandan, VO and lesha. He drew IMMM twice. But there is still time, I think he can still untilt himself and scrape a win here.
Prediction: vlad wins, 6.5-5.5

The_Knight_Of_Spring 0.5-5.5 RoyalManiac

TKOS doesn't know atomar rules prior to this.
Game 1 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/hjvhp0uy After d4, the opening was a big trade and They both have few pieces left. Black (TKOS) decided to give away their queen for free because he doesn't know the rules. The rest is just a shock flag.
Game 2 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/9zsqzazy Black lost material early on and after running out of checks with mate (or loss of rook) unstoppable, they resigned.
Game 3 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/yqojapie They traded kings and pushed pawns in the opening. White decided to bongcloud his king. Black somehow didn't take the free material and gave away material instead. He didn't respond to a check eventually.
Game 4 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/ln8qfncv They basically traded everything into a rook endgame, traded both rooks, traded pawns and the game was a dead draw. At least TKOS got half a point.
Game 5 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/rwld1f6t They traded pieces again but this time black got scammed again by a knight invasion. White slowly built up his advantage and got into the endgame an exchange and a pawn up. He used his rook to block the bishop and won a KQ vs K endgame.
Game 6 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/b5ac7uw3 Black went for a Q for RNP trade but forgot his knight was hanging. My advice is: don't play Nc6/Nf6 if you're gonna go for the center block. Or at least move it away or take the central pawn when d4/e4 is played. or you lose a knight for nothing. OK, black still won back the queen via a fork after pushing the passed pawn down the h file. after seeing the g and h pawns will limit the white king forever, white resigned to end the match.

lesha2002 vs mathwhiz16 (likely)

Lesha is pretty strong and he should be a contender in this tournament. I think he can get through this.
Prediction: lesha wins, 6-2

Natso 6-2 dpalm

Game 1 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/fdwfplqn They played a trade opening, but the battle on the queenside quickly got interesting. Black (dpalm) missed white's knight capture to win material, but white (Natso) played too fast in time trouble, so even if he was up an exchange and one pawn, he gave his rook back and entered a drawn endgame because black king was in the square.
Game 2 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/zk5mbobl They played the center block. White won a piece in the middlegame and tried to prove his advantage, but he disconnected and flagged.
Game 3 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/h8kocglu Center block again. White won some material but made strange moves thereafter, and lost the material advantage. White got tilted, dropped pawns here and there and resigned.
Game 4 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/aaf8hx6e White invaded with his knight in a normal looking d4 opening. Black managed to trade into an endgame a piece down but he was able to hold a draw in R vs R+2 endgame.
Game 5 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/pu5rhg3j White played too quickly in the opening, gave away two pawns for nothing and lost a third pawn. He got tilted and just resigned.
Game 6 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/jir9wjeg In a d4 game, white managed to win a piece quickly; when white forced a queen trade, black hung mate in 1 instead of trading queens.
Game 7 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/sjv0ifoi White got completely tilted and just threw pieces away in the opening. He ended up being down too much material and resigned.
Game 8 https://chessvariants.training/Variant960/Game/da1mh8gl Still tilted, black allowed a series of trades resulting in a rook vs queen endgame. Since a draw was enough to secure the match win, white didn't play for the win and went for the easy draw. Black insisted that white should win by hanging mate in 1.

Further rounds

Losers round 1

It's too early to analyze the losers' bracket -- most of them will probably forfeit. So, it's hard to tell who will win.

Winners round 3

fast-tsunami (likely) vs luka3916 (likely?): If fastie can practise more and try some scams, he can probably win this. Prediction: 6-3
LearningVariants (?) vs Iubar/FonsecaErnesto: Hard to say, but if Iubar can go this far, he can probably win. Prediction: 4-6
Rightline3127 vs Hysterix/Crepuscular: Do I have to say something? Well, I can't win. Prediction: 0-6
Astavakra/IMakeManyMistakes vs DanDan2016: DanDan has been impressive. He streamed and still won with the lag. Prediction: 2.5-5.5
Stephenhello (likely) vs QueenEatingDragon/Dartanian: Since I don't even know about QED and Dart, I think Stephen can win. If VO beat Stephen, VO can also win. Prediction: 6-1
two64brocc (likely) vs Wolfram_EP (likely): A strong matchup but can brocc catch up with Wolfram's strength quickly enough? Prediction: 4.5-5.5
vlad_00 (likely) vs RoyalManiac: Again, RM is very lucky. Vlad is not impressive in atomar. But I think he can still get a win but it will be close. Prediction: 5.5-3.5
lesha2002 (likely) vs Natso: Natso is a weird player, he barely played any games but can be a decent player whenever he plays. After studying he can only be stronger. Prediction: 4-6

OK, thanks for reading this report. Special thanks to an anonymous friend for the help!