World Cup Preview

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The biggest tournament of the year is here! It’s the World Cup, the heart of the 2025-27 World Championship cycle! The FIDE Women’s World Cup determines, not one, not two, but three spots in the next Candidates. That’s the most of any event. After Anna Muzychuk, Humpy Koneru, and to some extent Tan Zhongyi all just missed out on qualifying for the Candidates through the Grand Prix just two months ago, interest in those spots has never been higher.

What’s at stake and background

107 players are competing in a knock-out format for the World Cup title in the Georgian city of Batumi. Georgia was the heart of women’s chess for decades until China arrived, and Batumi is also known for hosting the Olympiad where China won double gold back in 2018. All the top players will be playing in the World Cup, except for Ju Wenjun and Bibisara Assaubayeva.

Each round is a mini-match of two classical games, one with White and one with Black, followed by speed chess mini-match tiebreaks (long rapid, short rapid, then blitz) if necessary. There is no Armageddon. If all the mini-matches are drawn, then the unlimited sudden-death blitz that Magnus hates, but I really like will settle things. Overall, players must survive 7 rounds to win. The top 21 seeds get byes into Round 2, meaning most of the players you would expect to win actually only have to survive 6 rounds for the title. The winner gets $50K, the runner-up $35K, and the semi-finalists get $25K and $20K — all the same as the other two previous editions.

What’s even important to at least some of the top players is the three Candidates spots. All three medallists will get a spot in the next Candidates. If one of the medallists already qualified (i.e. Zhu Jiner or Aleksandra Goryachkina), 4th place also gets a Candidates spot. If two of the semi-finalists already qualified (i.e. Zhu AND Goryachkina), then the spot goes to 3rd place in the overall Women’s Grand Prix series (Anna Muzychuk), or 4th place in the Grand Prix (Humpy Koneru) if Anna also makes the semi-finals.

Only two Candidates spots have been determined so far. Credit: FIDE.

Even though the World Cup has been around since 2005, this is actually only the 3rd edition of the Women’s World Cup, which began very recently in 2021. The inaugural World Cup champion was Alexandra Kosteniuk and the defending champion is Aleksandra Goryachkina. Even though the Women’s World Cup is new, the knock-out tournaments are not. Before they were the World Cup, they were the actual Women’s World Championship (held in knock-out format). In those years, the tournament was dominated by Chinese players, who won 6 out of 10 editions.

Build-up

Four players have really stood out this past year in the race to challenge Ju Wenjun for the World Championship: Humpy Koneru, Anna Muzychuk, Aleksandra Goryachkina, and the newcomer Zhu Jiner. Humpy, Anna, and Goryachkina all got first place or shared first in not one, but two Women’s Grand Prix legs. Zhu Jiner shared first in not one, not two, but three Grand Prix legs. And Anna also won Norway Chess, bringing her total to three firsts as well.

Aleksandra Goryachkina is the defending champion, and she has been in good form. Credit: Stev Bonhage.

Zhu Jiner and Aleksandra Goryachkina already have their Candidates spots through the Grand Prix. That leaves Anna Muzychuk and Humpy Koneru as the two most deserving contenders for the Candidates spots in this World Cup. But Humpy is the No. 4 seed and Anna is the No. 5 seed, putting them both in the same quarter. That means only one of them at most can make the semis and get a Candidates spot directly. Nevertheless, it is still possible for both of them to make the Candidates through the World Cup. If Zhu Jiner & Aleksandra Goryachkina make the semi-finals in the other half, then — as mentioned above — the last spot will go to 3rd or 4th in the Grand Prix series, which would again be Anna or Humpy.

The potential clash of Anna vs. Humpy in the QFs is the most anticipated matchup of the World Cup, for both the title and the Candidates spots. Credit: Michal Walusza.

This edition of the World Cup is very different than the last one and in that almost all of the top players are in form. That wasn’t the case last time when almost all of the players mentioned above — even Goryachkina, who won it — were struggling in the lead-up to the event. I think that bodes well for the favourites to take all the medals and Candidates spots this time. But it is also possible that the favourites have been doing too well and are due for an upset.

Quarter by Quarter

Lei Tingjie’s Quarter. With no Ju Wenjun, Lei Tingjie is the No. 1 overall seed. She has not played a classical tournament with normal increment since the Candidates a whole 15 months ago. Nevertheless, she might still have a good chance to win her quarter, if not more. All of Tingjie’s few tournaments since losing the World Championship have basically gone the same way. She has started slow, only to regain form later, but just a bit too late to win. That pattern might be okay for this tournament. Even with a bad start, she would just have to avoid losing to the lower seeds. Picking up form later on against the higher seeds is exactly what you want.

Lei Tingjie is the No. 1 seed, but is she the favourite? Credit: Lennart Ootes.

The biggest threat to Lei Tingjie is No. 8 seed Nana Dzagnidze, who wins a decent amount of games, but probably loses too many to go the whole way. Tingjie will hope Nana gets upset before their quarterfinal. No. 9 seed Mariya Muzychuk probably won’t do it as she’s been struggling, but the speed chess specialist No. 25 seed Valentina Gunina could get it done in Round 3.

Humpy Koneru’s Quarter. Humpy Koneru is the No. 4 overall seed. Humpy’s path is not easy. She could already have to face top junior WGM-elect Afruza Khamdamova — who just made a 2500+ TPR IM norm last week — in Round 2. That could be followed by a matchup with IM Klaudia Kulon, who has been in the best form of her career. Alexandra Kosteniuk, who has been struggling, might be her easiest matchup, which is not saying much as Kosteniuk is still a huge threat if it goes to tiebreaks. Fortunately, Humpy has been in form and I think she can make it through all of that.

But even if she does, the potential matchup of the tournament with Anna Muzychuk awaits in the quarters. As good of form as Humpy has been in, Anna has been even better. Anna’s main threat is Polina Shuvalova, but she hasn’t had a good tournament yet this year. I think Anna makes it through and is the favourite to win this quarter.

Zhu Jiner’s Quarter. Zhu Jiner is the No. 2 overall seed. She probably has the easiest quarter. The other top seed, No. 7 Kateryna Lagno, has not had a good classical tournament in a few years now. No one else seems to be much of a threat either. She may have to face No. 15 Divya Deshmukh or No. 18 Teodora Injac in Round 4, but they’re both coming off tournaments where they don’t look like they could challenge Zhu Jiner.

In Lagno’s half of this quarter, I think there is a high chance she gets upset. That sets up the potential for one of No. 10 Harika, No. 23 Stavroula, or No. 39 Vantika to become one of the lowest-seeded, if not the lowest-seeded quarterfinalist. In the last World Cup, the surprise quarter-finalist (and eventual finalist) Nurgyul Salimova also came from Lagno’s part of the draw.

Tan Zhongyi’s Quarter. Tan Zhongyi is the No. 3 overall seed. In the other half, Aleksandra Goryachkina is the No. 6 seed, setting up the potential for another clash in perhaps the biggest rivalry in women’s chess in recent years. Goryachkina knocked Tan out of the last World Cup after Tan had knocked her out of the previous Candidates. If they both make it to that quarterfinal, I think Goryachkina is the favourite. Tan has looked much more inconsistent this year compared to last year.

Another chapter in the Tan-Goryachkina rivalry may be written at this World Cup, just like at the last World Cup. Credit: Anna Shtourman.

As bad of form as Tan has been in, I’m not too worried about her path to the quarters. Meanwhile, Goryachkina could faces the likes of all the popular young players: No. 11 Vaishali, No. 22 Carissa Yip, and No. 38 Alice Lee. Those are all the players I would love to pick for some big upsets, but I don’t think it will happen against Goryachkina.

Who is going to win?

I think most of the top seeds will make the quarters and semis. There are lots of exciting players that could pull upsets, including Lu Miaoyi, on top of those I already mentioned. But I don’t think most of them are in the right parts of the bracket to pull them off.

If all the favourites make it to the semis, that could be No. 1 Lei Tingjie vs. No. 5 Anna Muzychuk, and No. 2 Zhu Jiner and No. 6 Aleksandra Goryachkina. Maybe Humpy or Tan get there instead. From here, it’s tough to pick. From the knock-out World Championship days, I would think the Chinese players are the favourites. But both World Cups have been won by players originally from Russia.

Lei Tingjie hasn’t won anything since winning the 2022-23 Candidates, so it’s hard to pick her to win the whole thing. Anna Muzychuk has won three tournaments in a row. If she wins this too, it would be her 4th tournament win in a row. That’s hard to imagine. Could Goryachkina win this two times in a row? That’s also hard to imagine. Only Kosteniuk has won the knock-out twice, and she did it 13 years apart, not consecutively. Humpy, and also Anna, seem destined not to win as they were never able to win this tournament when it was the World Championship. It would be almost a shame if they won now when it no longer counts as the World Championship. When you’ve eliminated the impossible, whatever remains must be the champion. That is Zhu Jiner.

Zhu Jiner is the favourite to win the World Cup after sharing first in all three of her FIDE Women’s Grand Prix legs. Credit: Przemek Nikiel.

It would make sense if Zhu Jiner wins. She tied for first at three tournaments in a row, but didn’t actually win any of them. She’s due for a win. She’s also from China. And she has the easiest path out of anyone. I’m picking her. But it wouldn’t be surprise me Lei Tingjie or Aleksandra Goryachkina pull it off. If anyone else wins, I would be surprised. If Anna or Humpy win, I won’t even know what to say.

Schedule

Round 1 of the World Cup begins on Sunday, 6 July. Round 2 is Wednesday, 9 July. Round 3 is Saturday, 12 July. There is a rest day after that round, then it continues with Round 4 on Wednesday, 16 July. The QFs begin on Saturday, 19 July and the SFs on Tuesday, 22 July. After another rest day, the final starts Saturday, 26 July.

The schedule. Credit: FIDE.

Can’t wait!

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