Who's next?

If you’ve been watching the men’s world elite the past five to ten years or so, you’re probably familiar with a particular trend we’ve seen in that time. Towards the late 2010s, there mostly stopped being new talent reach the very top and the best players in the world back then were getting old. When the pandemic happened in 2020, Anish Giri was the youngest player in the Top 12 at age 26 and most players were at least 30. There were concerns about whether we would see the next generation break through any time soon. Fast forward to today, and the next generation has in fact made it. The current Top 12 is flourishing with young talent. More than half of them are younger than Anish was five years ago, including five players (Gukesh, Arjun, Nodirbek, Pragg, Alireza) 21 or under.

If you look at the women’s world elite the last few years, it looks something like the men’s world elite did when it stagnated in the late 2010s up to 2020. Most of the Top 10 is old. Of the new faces to establish themselves in the Top 10 since Tan Zhongyi won the world title in 2017, it’s really only Aleksandra Goryachkina and Lei Tingjie. A few others have poked their heads above 2500, but haven’t been able to stay there. That might sound bad at first, but if things play out like they did for the men, it would point to us being just a few years away from colossal change at the top of women’s chess.

Will that happen? Who are these next players that are going to break through into the women’s world elite? To get a sense of that, let’s go through who the next GM, next young players, and next World Champion are going to be.

Next GM?

No women earned the GM title last year, which only makes it more intriguing to see who is going to be the next GM. (Vaishali was the last to do it in December 2023, becoming the 42nd GM in women’s chess history.)

The most obvious name might be Alina Kashlinskaya. She stunned everyone by making her 2nd-ever GM norm as a replacement player in the Grand Prix after over a year off from international competition. She only needs one more norm. She doesn’t play many tournaments where norms are feasible, but she is going to get another chance as a replacement player in the Grand Prix next month in India. Hopefully she’ll get to replace someone in the final leg in Austria the following month too.

Alina Kashlinskaya delivered a memorable victory in the first leg of the current Grand Prix series. Credit: Anna Shtourman.

The other most obvious name is Bibisara Assaubayeva. Bibisara got within a few points of 2500 last year, and only needs one more norm. She did drop a bit in rating after her last tournament though, so now she has more work to do than Alina. But unlike Alina, Bibisara plays a lot more tournaments where norms are feasible.

If it’s not one of those two, it would probably be Polina Shuvalova. She needs two more norms. She certainly played well enough in opens last year to earn norms, but fell just short with a 2586 performance in Aktobe. She did reach the necessary 2600 level in Annemasse, but without playing enough GMs. Still, if she keeps up that level, it’s only a matter of time. She also gets her next good shot as a replacement player in the Grand Prix next month in India.

And of course if those three take too long, don’t forget about Divya Deshmukh. She has been 2500, but still needs all three norms. As a wild card pick, Lela Javakhishvili is 40 years old and rated 2429. But she has been 2500 before and has two norms. If she just randomly makes one more, she would be the oldest-ever to earn the GM title in women’s chess history.

Next 2500?

The next player to hit 2500 might not be the same as the next GM. Of the names mentioned above, only Bibisara has yet to hit that threshold. Bibisara is definitely the most likely by far, but if she doesn’t do it next, who else has a chance? If we look at the list of top players who have yet to hit 2500, three names stand out.

The first two are a pair of names: Teodora Injac and Stavroula Tsolakidou. Both are from European countries not particularly strong for chess, and both were born in 2000. They’re both around 2450 now. Injac has been trending upwards for a long time, while Tsolakidou has been trending upwards ever since she graduated from university early last summer. Both have at least one GM norm, so you know they actually want to hit 2500 to have a shot at the GM title.

Teodora Injac has gone kind of under-the-radar, but she’s never been stronger and could hit 2500 some time soon. Credit: Mark Livshitz.

The other main possibility is someone much younger: 15-year-old Lu Miaoyi. She is a bit lower in rating right now, but she’s still a junior. She generally has played much more frequently than her adult counterparts, so she could have a big jump rather quickly.

Next IM?

Last year, we had three new IMs, a bit low compared to eight the previous year. So far this year, we haven’t had any, but that could change very quickly. Unlike GM or 2500, there are a bunch of players right now who are already very close.

Four women in the 2300s already have all their IM norms, and only need to reach 2400 to get the title. That includes two juniors: India’s 19-year-old Rakshitta Ravi (2324) and Kazakhstan’s 17-year-old Alua Nurman (2347). The other two are Poland’s 23-year-old Alicja Śliwicka (2376), who only got the WGM title last year, and India’s 28-year-old PV Nandhidhaa (2365), who made all her norms years ago but just recently hit a career-best rating.

But the next woman to become an IM might actually be one of the two who has already reached 2400 and only needs one more norm. The first is Hungary’s 17-year-old Zsóka Gaál, who made three norms back-to-back-to-back last autumn, but one of them was only seven games, so she still needs one more. The other is Azerbaijan’s 21-year-old Govhar Beydullayeva. She’s had at least five chances or more in the past year-and-a-half where she could have earned her final IM norm. Those near-misses haven’t been all bad though. Even though she’s the only one on the national team without the IM title, she outperformed all her teammates in 2024 with a 2399 performance across the whole year. She’ll get another shot at the IM title next month in the European Women’s Championship.

Zsóka Gaál should complete her IM title this year. Credit: via Zsóka Gaál.

Next young prodigy?

There are no next prodigies of course, because if you are in line to be the next young prodigy, then for all intensive purposes, you already are one. A number of young prodigies have had excellent achievements in the last few years.

Alice Lee and Lu Miaoyi became the 3rd and 4th youngest girls in chess history to become IMs, which they achieved at 13 and 14 respectively. India had two different girls top their overall age-10 rating list last year. Charvi did it in December, and Sharvaanica (“the 100-percent girl” for all her perfect scores in tournaments) did it one month earlier and she was only age 9 at the time. Meanwhile, Alanna Berikkyzy (the girls’ U10 World Champion) is the same age as Charvi, and accomplished the same feat in Kazakhstan and at a similar rating too. Likewise, Bodhana is the same age of Sharvaanica, and accomplished the same feat in England. She also became the youngest girl in chess history to reach CM-level in rating, and one of the youngest-ever overall as well.

Overall, young prodigies have had a pretty good last few years.

Next World Champion?

Ju Wenjun has been World Champion for almost seven years now. But no matter how good she is, some day we’ll have a new World Champion. Who will be the next World Champion?

Tan Zhongyi is the obvious pick as she is literally playing a match against Ju Wenjun for the title in less than two weeks. The two are similarly-rated and have a rather balanced history against one another. It could go either away. But if you believe Ju Wenjun will win, then we have to look further ahead to 2027 or beyond.

How long could Ju Wenjun be World Champion? At 34, she is already the oldest Women’s World Champion since Nona Gaprindashvili in 1978. That may make it seem like you wouldn’t expect her to be World Champion for much longer. But Tan Zhongyi is also turning 34 this year, so Tan dethroning Ju Wenjun wouldn’t change anything age-wise.

Next month’s World Championship match Champion and Challenger faced each other just recently in the World Rapid & Blitz. Credit: FIDE / Lennart Ootes.

Nona was in fact World Champion until she was 37. For Ju Wenjun to pass Nona, she would have to win the next two, this year and one more in 2027. If she succeeds, she wouldn’t be dethroned until at least 2029. How old would her expected competitors be then? Goryachkina would be 30, while Lei Tingjie would be 32. Among the next generation, Vaishali at 27 and Zhu Jiner at 26 might be hitting their prime. It would also be more than enough time for the current juniors to reach the top, as Divya Deshmukh would be 23 and Lu Miaoyi would be 19. That could be some difficult competition for Ju Wenjun at 38. But would she be stopped before then?

Looking ahead to 2027, the next Candidates is only about a year away. With most of the spots not decided until later this year, Goryachkina is the only one who already looks on track to qualify (through the Women’s Grand Prix). If she could return to her peak form from 2021, she would obviously be a threat. She might be the only one though as most of the other top names right now are in their 30s. Lei Tingjie’s participation in the next cycle is unclear after her withdrawal from the Grand Prix, while Tan no longer automatically qualifies for the Candidates if she loses the match. Meanwhile, the few younger names would need to elevate their game around 50 Elo in the next twelve months to contend. If Ju Wenjun beats Tan next month, maybe her reign really will make it to 2029.

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Overall, big change might take a bit more time, but for some of these things like next IM and more importantly, next World Champion, you might already get to see it play out next month. Stay tuned! You never know what will happen.

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